- Monte Carlo analysis
- Monte Carlo analysis (aggressive)
- Parameter importance analysis
- Timelines analysis
Here, you will find the distributions of results that come from sampling the parameters according to Tom Davidson's beliefs. The median training requirements for AGI are ~1e36 FLOP using 2022 algorithms.
Probability of full economic automation before 2100 : 89%
Probability of slow takeoff : 74%
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Quantile | Powerful sub-AGI year | AGI year | 20% automation year | 100% automation year | 20% R&D automation year | 100% R&D automation year | Wake-up year | 20-100% economic automation | 20-100% R&D automation | Powerful sub-AGI to AGI | 2X to 10X cognitive output multiplier | 5% to 20% GWP growth |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.01 | 2024.0 | 2025.2 | 2024.8 | 2025.7 | 2024.2 | 2025.6 | 2024.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
0.10 | 2026.9 | 2029.1 | 2027.7 | 2029.6 | 2026.8 | 2029.4 | 2026.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
0.20 | 2029.5 | 2032.2 | 2030.0 | 2032.7 | 2028.9 | 2032.4 | 2028.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
0.50 | 2038.8 | 2043.2 | 2038.3 | 2043.3 | 2036.7 | 2042.9 | 2036.6 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
0.80 | 2062.3 | 2070.6 | 2058.8 | 2070.3 | 2055.5 | 2069.7 | 2055.3 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 6.6 |
0.90 | 2095.0 | ≥ 2100 | 2088.2 | ≥ 2100 | 2082.2 | ≥ 2100 | 2083.1 | 12.5 | 14.6 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 12.2 |
0.99 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | 28.0 | 30.7 | 27.0 | 18.5 | 30.7 |
mean | 2047.3 | 2051.4 | 2046.5 | 2051.5 | 2044.6 | 2051.2 | 2044.6 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.7 |
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Timelines vs takeoff
"Years before full economic automation" tables
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.9 |
10% | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 6.7 |
20% | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 9.3 |
50% | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 8.4 | 21.1 |
80% | 9.0 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 21.9 | 23.8 |
90% | 10.9 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 23.7 | 25.3 |
99% | 13.8 | 11.8 | 18.5 | 27.1 | 28.4 |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
10% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
20% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
50% | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
80% | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
90% | 0.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 4.8 |
99% | 1.2 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
10% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
20% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
50% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
80% | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
90% | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
99% | N/A | 1.2 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 10.9 |
N/A: at physical limit
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 3.6e+29 | 2.6e+26 | 3.5e+25 | 3.2e+23 | 8.0e+19 |
10% | 5.2e+31 | 6.2e+28 | 5.5e+27 | 5.4e+25 | 9.2e+22 |
20% | 9.6e+32 | 1.4e+30 | 1.5e+29 | 1.6e+27 | 3.0e+24 |
50% | 1.1e+36 | 1.7e+33 | 2.5e+32 | 6.3e+30 | 6.5e+28 |
80% | 8.6e+39 | 9.6e+36 | 1.9e+36 | 7.6e+34 | 1.7e+33 |
90% | 1.2e+42 | 6.9e+38 | 1.6e+38 | 9.7e+36 | 3.4e+35 |
99% | 1.1e+48 | 5.9e+42 | 1.6e+42 | 1.0e+41 | 4.2e+39 |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
10% | 0.95% | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
20% | 3.10% | 0.68% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
50% | 6.60% | 4.76% | 3.64% | 0.79% | 0.21% |
80% | 12.74% | 10.85% | 9.42% | 6.03% | 3.52% |
90% | 15.45% | 13.99% | 12.73% | 9.81% | 5.83% |
99% | 19.25% | 18.72% | 18.35% | 16.50% | 13.57% |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
10% | 0.22% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.04% |
20% | 0.48% | 0.39% | 0.32% | 0.19% | 0.08% |
50% | 2.86% | 2.34% | 1.92% | 1.08% | 0.44% |
80% | 7.25% | 6.72% | 6.30% | 5.09% | 3.73% |
90% | 11.22% | 10.51% | 9.81% | 8.26% | 6.52% |
99% | 23.46% | 22.69% | 21.80% | 20.62% | 18.40% |
Inputs
Number of samples: 10000
Rank correlations: click here to view.
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | Effective FLOP gap (training) | Training goods vs R&D | AGI runtime requirements | Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | Runtime goods vs R&D | Trade-off efficiency | Maximum trade-off | Labour substitution goods | Labour substitution R&D | Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | Returns to hardware | Returns to software | Maximum hardware performance | Maximum software performance | R&D parallelization penalty | Hardware adoption delay | Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | Growth rate fraction GWP compute | Growth rate fraction compute training | Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | Max fraction capital hardware R&D | Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | Max fraction labour software R&D | Max fraction compute software R&D | Max fraction GWP compute | Max fraction compute training | Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | Initial fraction labour software R&D | Initial fraction compute software R&D | Initial biggest training run | Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | Initial hardware production | Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | Initial market hardware performance | Initial GWP | Initial cognitive share goods | Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | Initial compute share goods | Initial compute share R&D | Wakeup trigger | Initial capital growth rate | Population growth rate | TFP growth rate | Compute depreciation rate | |
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AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Training goods vs R&D | -0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AGI runtime requirements | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Runtime goods vs R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade-off efficiency | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maximum trade-off | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Labour substitution goods | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Labour substitution R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Returns to hardware | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Returns to software | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maximum hardware performance | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maximum software performance | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.6 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R&D parallelization penalty | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hardware adoption delay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction compute training | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction labour software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction compute software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction GWP compute | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction compute training | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Initial biggest training run | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||
Initial hardware production | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||
Initial market hardware performance | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||||||
Initial GWP | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
Initial cognitive share goods | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Initial compute share goods | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
Initial compute share R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Wakeup trigger | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Initial capital growth rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Population growth rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
TFP growth rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
Compute depreciation rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Input statistics: click here to view.
mean | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.99 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | 3.180294e+98 | 8.329197e+26 | 6.706139e+29 | 6.463759e+31 | 1.990037e+36 | 6.965743e+41 | 1.003197e+45 | 1.000000e+100 |
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 6.008370e+06 | 1.077580e+01 | 2.524628e+01 | 7.231609e+01 | 2.862258e+03 | 9.392888e+05 | 1.334795e+07 | 9.862204e+07 |
Training goods vs R&D | 7.273393e+00 | 1.053252e+00 | 1.345613e+00 | 1.688529e+00 | 3.324150e+00 | 1.258051e+01 | 2.051044e+01 | 2.999897e+01 |
AGI runtime requirements | 2.080519e+26 | 3.464587e+22 | 5.651998e+22 | 1.002636e+23 | 5.808495e+23 | 1.091075e+26 | 5.733133e+26 | 3.153600e+27 |
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 1.219319e+01 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000003e+00 | 1.066144e+00 | 1.469952e+01 | 4.319323e+01 | 9.941952e+01 |
Runtime goods vs R&D | 3.490941e+01 | 3.180264e+00 | 4.844730e+00 | 7.486121e+00 | 2.991336e+01 | 6.124000e+01 | 7.914238e+01 | 9.754342e+01 |
Trade-off efficiency | 1.640222e+00 | 8.088064e-01 | 9.050925e-01 | 1.027566e+00 | 1.507266e+00 | 2.268742e+00 | 2.615334e+00 | 2.953208e+00 |
Maximum trade-off | 1.555582e+02 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000002e+00 | 1.000111e+00 | 3.119107e+01 | 2.657257e+02 | 5.562818e+02 | 9.999448e+02 |
Labour substitution goods | -7.040706e-01 | -1.937253e+00 | -1.511072e+00 | -1.143728e+00 | -4.990595e-01 | -2.910609e-01 | -2.396343e-01 | -2.036118e-01 |
Labour substitution R&D | -7.054356e-01 | -1.941791e+00 | -1.518687e+00 | -1.150530e+00 | -5.018840e-01 | -2.883604e-01 | -2.412157e-01 | -2.036906e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | -6.383368e-01 | -1.936037e+00 | -1.457961e+00 | -1.042373e+00 | -3.974297e-01 | -2.648220e-01 | -2.316691e-01 | -2.026436e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | -2.848353e-01 | -4.933925e-01 | -4.361389e-01 | -3.800636e-01 | -2.512497e-01 | -1.979495e-01 | -1.838059e-01 | -1.716774e-01 |
Research experiments substitution software | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 |
Efficiency of experiments for software R&D | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 |
Returns to hardware | 5.034013e+00 | 3.035413e+00 | 3.352396e+00 | 3.724921e+00 | 5.211846e+00 | 6.234849e+00 | 6.603288e+00 | 6.953123e+00 |
Returns to software | 1.849049e+00 | 8.062564e-01 | 8.763951e-01 | 9.612549e-01 | 1.252419e+00 | 2.856755e+00 | 3.718087e+00 | 4.844714e+00 |
Maximum hardware performance | 7.248320e+27 | 1.137651e+23 | 3.933981e+23 | 1.523766e+24 | 1.013113e+26 | 6.361389e+27 | 2.464457e+28 | 8.661870e+28 |
Maximum software performance | 6.302961e+14 | 1.360594e+08 | 6.755145e+08 | 4.411268e+09 | 1.112030e+12 | 2.838369e+14 | 1.645414e+15 | 1.000000e+16 |
R&D parallelization penalty | 6.740163e-01 | 2.074172e-01 | 2.800825e-01 | 3.805417e-01 | 7.062905e-01 | 9.570432e-01 | 9.798301e-01 | 9.893331e-01 |
Hardware adoption delay | 9.261297e-01 | 1.106154e-02 | 2.555578e-02 | 6.462208e-02 | 9.996646e-01 | 1.735531e+00 | 2.060769e+00 | 2.456939e+00 |
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 1.969811e-01 | 7.139117e-02 | 8.607243e-02 | 1.056009e-01 | 1.945649e-01 | 2.838927e-01 | 3.253373e-01 | 3.651167e-01 |
Growth rate fraction compute training | 5.212502e-01 | 1.682577e-01 | 2.097212e-01 | 2.687827e-01 | 5.510881e-01 | 7.522248e-01 | 8.354377e-01 | 9.198907e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.439160e-01 | 5.004935e-02 | 5.854545e-02 | 7.075671e-02 | 1.290477e-01 | 2.153636e-01 | 2.569717e-01 | 3.109824e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.442584e-01 | 5.007490e-02 | 5.821386e-02 | 7.120396e-02 | 1.294900e-01 | 2.173830e-01 | 2.577993e-01 | 3.113542e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 6.771647e-01 | 2.702612e-01 | 3.102628e-01 | 3.686360e-01 | 6.264011e-01 | 9.772651e-01 | 1.145087e+00 | 1.335800e+00 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 2.186559e-01 | 1.200872e-01 | 1.315287e-01 | 1.481440e-01 | 2.090967e-01 | 2.890494e-01 | 3.240291e-01 | 3.634415e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 6.771797e-01 | 2.703629e-01 | 3.108837e-01 | 3.712125e-01 | 6.300151e-01 | 9.781631e-01 | 1.136446e+00 | 1.338914e+00 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 1.853734e-01 | 7.008393e-02 | 8.183240e-02 | 9.842727e-02 | 1.761538e-01 | 2.698927e-01 | 3.107544e-01 | 3.608911e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 1.500347e+00 | 5.503656e-01 | 6.115310e-01 | 7.072375e-01 | 1.047638e+00 | 2.335261e+00 | 3.156047e+00 | 4.272485e+00 |
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 3.546621e-02 | 1.001373e-02 | 1.178535e-02 | 1.453785e-02 | 2.739236e-02 | 5.658297e-02 | 7.365374e-02 | 9.593299e-02 |
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 3.570137e-02 | 1.001312e-02 | 1.182424e-02 | 1.460723e-02 | 2.744540e-02 | 5.685818e-02 | 7.361551e-02 | 9.617974e-02 |
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 1.806083e-01 | 5.008084e-02 | 6.208914e-02 | 8.222629e-02 | 1.806734e-01 | 2.721555e-01 | 3.068044e-01 | 3.438260e-01 |
Max fraction labour software R&D | 3.561294e-02 | 1.001133e-02 | 1.182942e-02 | 1.463824e-02 | 2.725067e-02 | 5.665356e-02 | 7.436741e-02 | 9.605860e-02 |
Max fraction compute software R&D | 1.806134e-01 | 5.007678e-02 | 6.261220e-02 | 8.274983e-02 | 1.816824e-01 | 2.719788e-01 | 3.054551e-01 | 3.437932e-01 |
Max fraction GWP compute | 1.137888e-01 | 3.003964e-02 | 3.610612e-02 | 4.651685e-02 | 9.151264e-02 | 1.839765e-01 | 2.309989e-01 | 2.902088e-01 |
Max fraction compute training | 9.627827e-02 | 3.004604e-02 | 3.640637e-02 | 4.544866e-02 | 9.110837e-02 | 1.451484e-01 | 1.687123e-01 | 1.958836e-01 |
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 |
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 |
Initial biggest training run | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 |
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 |
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 |
Initial hardware production | 2.193953e+28 | 1.038271e+27 | 1.586925e+27 | 2.492924e+27 | 1.039978e+28 | 4.117231e+28 | 6.412132e+28 | 9.541769e+28 |
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 |
Initial market hardware performance | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 |
Initial GWP | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 |
Initial world labour force. | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 |
Initial cognitive share goods | 4.858117e-01 | 3.037705e-01 | 3.364603e-01 | 3.759093e-01 | 4.977813e-01 | 5.899715e-01 | 6.214534e-01 | 6.469094e-01 |
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 |
Initial compute share goods | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Initial compute share R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Initial experiment share software R&D | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 |
Wakeup trigger | 7.221087e-02 | 1.042875e-02 | 1.438355e-02 | 2.041779e-02 | 5.795975e-02 | 1.244156e-01 | 1.585916e-01 | 1.960051e-01 |
Initial capital growth rate | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 |
Population growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
TFP growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Compute depreciation rate | 1.964450e-01 | 1.015999e-01 | 1.156063e-01 | 1.339025e-01 | 1.987365e-01 | 2.573573e-01 | 2.782248e-01 | 2.977400e-01 |
Money threshold training | 5.785719e+09 | 4.169565e+08 | 6.279047e+08 | 1.011599e+09 | 4.039929e+09 | 1.058057e+10 | 1.449321e+10 | 1.945723e+10 |
Training requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 |
Runtime requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 |
Compute Levels | p(this much compute is enough to train AGI using 2020 algs) |
---|---|
21.000000 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.008002 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.016003 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.024005 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.032006 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.040008 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.048010 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.056011 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.064013 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.072014 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.080016 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.088018 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.096019 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.104021 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.112022 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.120024 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.128026 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.136027 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.144029 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.152030 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.160032 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.168034 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.176035 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.184037 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.192038 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.200040 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.208042 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.216043 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.224045 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.232046 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.240048 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.248050 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.256051 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.264053 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.272054 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.280056 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.288058 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.296059 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.304061 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.312062 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.320064 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.328066 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.336067 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.344069 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.352070 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.360072 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.368074 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.376075 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.384077 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.392078 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.400080 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.408082 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.416083 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.424085 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.432086 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.440088 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.448090 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.456091 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.464093 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.472094 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.480096 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.488098 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.496099 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.504101 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.512102 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.520104 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.528106 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.536107 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.544109 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.552110 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.560112 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.568114 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.576115 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.584117 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.592118 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.600120 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.608122 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.616123 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.624125 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.632126 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.640128 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.648130 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.656131 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.664133 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.672134 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.680136 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.688138 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.696139 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.704141 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.712142 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.720144 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.728146 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.736147 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.744149 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.752150 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.760152 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.768154 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.776155 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.784157 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.792158 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.800160 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.808162 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.816163 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.824165 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.832166 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.840168 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.848170 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.856171 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.864173 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.872174 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.880176 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.888178 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.896179 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.904181 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.912182 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.920184 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.928186 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.936187 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.944189 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.952190 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.960192 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.968194 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.976195 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.984197 | 0.000000e+00 |
21.992198 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.000200 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.008202 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.016203 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.024205 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.032206 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.040208 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.048210 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.056211 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.064213 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.072214 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.080216 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.088218 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.096219 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.104221 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.112222 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.120224 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.128226 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.136227 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.144229 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.152230 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.160232 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.168234 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.176235 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.184237 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.192238 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.200240 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.208242 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.216243 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.224245 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.232246 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.240248 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.248250 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.256251 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.264253 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.272254 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.280256 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.288258 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.296259 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.304261 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.312262 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.320264 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.328266 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.336267 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.344269 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.352270 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.360272 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.368274 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.376275 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.384277 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.392278 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.400280 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.408282 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.416283 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.424285 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.432286 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.440288 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.448290 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.456291 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.464293 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.472294 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.480296 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.488298 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.496299 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.504301 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.512302 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.520304 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.528306 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.536307 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.544309 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.552310 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.560312 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.568314 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.576315 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.584317 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.592318 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.600320 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.608322 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.616323 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.624325 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.632326 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.640328 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.648330 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.656331 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.664333 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.672334 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.680336 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.688338 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.696339 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.704341 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.712342 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.720344 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.728346 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.736347 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.744349 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.752350 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.760352 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.768354 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.776355 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.784357 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.792358 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.800360 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.808362 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.816363 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.824365 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.832366 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.840368 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.848370 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.856371 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.864373 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.872374 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.880376 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.888378 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.896379 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.904381 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.912382 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.920384 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.928386 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.936387 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.944389 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.952390 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.960392 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.968394 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.976395 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.984397 | 0.000000e+00 |
22.992398 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.000400 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.008402 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.016403 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.024405 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.032406 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.040408 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.048410 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.056411 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.064413 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.072414 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.080416 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.088418 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.096419 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.104421 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.112422 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.120424 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.128426 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.136427 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.144429 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.152430 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.160432 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.168434 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.176435 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.184437 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.192438 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.200440 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.208442 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.216443 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.224445 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.232446 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.240448 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.248450 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.256451 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.264453 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.272454 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.280456 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.288458 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.296459 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.304461 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.312462 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.320464 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.328466 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.336467 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.344469 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.352470 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.360472 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.368474 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.376475 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.384477 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.392478 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.400480 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.408482 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.416483 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.424485 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.432486 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.440488 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.448490 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.456491 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.464493 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.472494 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.480496 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.488498 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.496499 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.504501 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.512503 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.520504 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.528506 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.536507 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.544509 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.552511 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.560512 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.568514 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.576515 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.584517 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.592519 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.600520 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.608522 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.616523 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.624525 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.632527 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.640528 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.648530 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.656531 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.664533 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.672535 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.680536 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.688538 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.696539 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.704541 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.712543 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.720544 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.728546 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.736547 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.744549 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.752551 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.760552 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.768554 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.776555 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.784557 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.792559 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.800560 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.808562 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.816563 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.824565 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.832567 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.840568 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.848570 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.856571 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.864573 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.872575 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.880576 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.888578 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.896579 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.904581 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.912583 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.920584 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.928586 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.936587 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.944589 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.952591 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.960592 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.968594 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.976595 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.984597 | 0.000000e+00 |
23.992599 | 0.000000e+00 |
24.000600 | 0.000000e+00 |
24.008602 | 0.000000e+00 |
24.016603 | 0.000000e+00 |
24.024605 | 1.200000e-07 |
24.032607 | 1.080000e-06 |
24.040608 | 1.320000e-06 |
24.048610 | 2.100000e-06 |
24.056611 | 2.640000e-06 |
24.064613 | 3.120000e-06 |
24.072615 | 4.140000e-06 |
24.080616 | 4.600000e-06 |
24.088618 | 6.160000e-06 |
24.096619 | 8.320000e-06 |
24.104621 | 9.880000e-06 |
24.112623 | 1.352000e-05 |
24.120624 | 1.478000e-05 |
24.128626 | 1.700000e-05 |
24.136627 | 1.986000e-05 |
24.144629 | 2.460000e-05 |
24.152631 | 2.660000e-05 |
24.160632 | 2.924000e-05 |
24.168634 | 3.052000e-05 |
24.176635 | 3.298000e-05 |
24.184637 | 3.708000e-05 |
24.192639 | 3.980000e-05 |
24.200640 | 4.388000e-05 |
24.208642 | 4.970000e-05 |
24.216643 | 5.394000e-05 |
24.224645 | 5.680000e-05 |
24.232647 | 6.042000e-05 |
24.240648 | 6.264000e-05 |
24.248650 | 6.864000e-05 |
24.256651 | 7.122000e-05 |
24.264653 | 7.374000e-05 |
24.272655 | 7.736000e-05 |
24.280656 | 8.350000e-05 |
24.288658 | 8.768000e-05 |
24.296659 | 9.014000e-05 |
24.304661 | 9.212000e-05 |
24.312663 | 9.514000e-05 |
24.320664 | 1.006000e-04 |
24.328666 | 1.031200e-04 |
24.336667 | 1.089000e-04 |
24.344669 | 1.135000e-04 |
24.352671 | 1.198200e-04 |
24.360672 | 1.270000e-04 |
24.368674 | 1.300800e-04 |
24.376675 | 1.428400e-04 |
24.384677 | 1.474600e-04 |
24.392679 | 1.536400e-04 |
24.400680 | 1.582800e-04 |
24.408682 | 1.641800e-04 |
24.416683 | 1.724600e-04 |
24.424685 | 1.810800e-04 |
24.432687 | 1.888000e-04 |
24.440688 | 1.978200e-04 |
24.448690 | 2.099800e-04 |
24.456691 | 2.163600e-04 |
24.464693 | 2.288400e-04 |
24.472695 | 2.399600e-04 |
24.480696 | 2.475200e-04 |
24.488698 | 2.600200e-04 |
24.496699 | 2.699800e-04 |
24.504701 | 2.816200e-04 |
24.512703 | 2.899600e-04 |
24.520704 | 2.984800e-04 |
24.528706 | 3.056800e-04 |
24.536707 | 3.154000e-04 |
24.544709 | 3.287200e-04 |
24.552711 | 3.414000e-04 |
24.560712 | 3.512600e-04 |
24.568714 | 3.651600e-04 |
24.576715 | 3.723800e-04 |
24.584717 | 3.814400e-04 |
24.592719 | 3.928600e-04 |
24.600720 | 4.063000e-04 |
24.608722 | 4.164800e-04 |
24.616723 | 4.331000e-04 |
24.624725 | 4.436200e-04 |
24.632727 | 4.528400e-04 |
24.640728 | 4.602400e-04 |
24.648730 | 4.681000e-04 |
24.656731 | 4.820400e-04 |
24.664733 | 4.950000e-04 |
24.672735 | 5.051000e-04 |
24.680736 | 5.158000e-04 |
24.688738 | 5.305800e-04 |
24.696739 | 5.413600e-04 |
24.704741 | 5.509600e-04 |
24.712743 | 5.630600e-04 |
24.720744 | 5.765400e-04 |
24.728746 | 5.878400e-04 |
24.736747 | 6.025800e-04 |
24.744749 | 6.244000e-04 |
24.752751 | 6.420200e-04 |
24.760752 | 6.560800e-04 |
24.768754 | 6.658800e-04 |
24.776755 | 6.873200e-04 |
24.784757 | 7.061200e-04 |
24.792759 | 7.244000e-04 |
24.800760 | 7.446600e-04 |
24.808762 | 7.576000e-04 |
24.816763 | 7.719600e-04 |
24.824765 | 7.953200e-04 |
24.832767 | 8.136400e-04 |
24.840768 | 8.325400e-04 |
24.848770 | 8.469800e-04 |
24.856771 | 8.638200e-04 |
24.864773 | 8.839200e-04 |
24.872775 | 8.996800e-04 |
24.880776 | 9.235800e-04 |
24.888778 | 9.477600e-04 |
24.896779 | 9.658600e-04 |
24.904781 | 9.865400e-04 |
24.912783 | 1.002180e-03 |
24.920784 | 1.021840e-03 |
24.928786 | 1.042280e-03 |
24.936787 | 1.060320e-03 |
24.944789 | 1.080960e-03 |
24.952791 | 1.100000e-03 |
24.960792 | 1.119360e-03 |
24.968794 | 1.142280e-03 |
24.976795 | 1.161240e-03 |
24.984797 | 1.178400e-03 |
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57.079216 | 9.598567e-01 |
57.087217 | 9.598567e-01 |
57.095219 | 9.598586e-01 |
57.103221 | 9.598590e-01 |
57.111222 | 9.598590e-01 |
57.119224 | 9.598590e-01 |
57.127225 | 9.598593e-01 |
57.135227 | 9.598596e-01 |
57.143229 | 9.598596e-01 |
57.151230 | 9.598602e-01 |
57.159232 | 9.598606e-01 |
57.167233 | 9.598610e-01 |
57.175235 | 9.598610e-01 |
57.183237 | 9.598613e-01 |
57.191238 | 9.598626e-01 |
57.199240 | 9.598626e-01 |
57.207241 | 9.598629e-01 |
57.215243 | 9.598638e-01 |
57.223245 | 9.598645e-01 |
57.231246 | 9.598652e-01 |
57.239248 | 9.598668e-01 |
57.247249 | 9.598668e-01 |
57.255251 | 9.598668e-01 |
57.263253 | 9.598678e-01 |
57.271254 | 9.598678e-01 |
57.279256 | 9.598678e-01 |
57.287257 | 9.598684e-01 |
57.295259 | 9.598690e-01 |
57.303261 | 9.598696e-01 |
57.311262 | 9.598696e-01 |
57.319264 | 9.598696e-01 |
57.327265 | 9.598703e-01 |
57.335267 | 9.598709e-01 |
57.343269 | 9.598709e-01 |
57.351270 | 9.598722e-01 |
57.359272 | 9.598731e-01 |
57.367273 | 9.598741e-01 |
57.375275 | 9.598741e-01 |
57.383277 | 9.598754e-01 |
57.391278 | 9.598773e-01 |
57.399280 | 9.598779e-01 |
57.407281 | 9.598786e-01 |
57.415283 | 9.598789e-01 |
57.423285 | 9.598792e-01 |
57.431286 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.439288 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.447289 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.455291 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.463293 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.471294 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.479296 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.487297 | 9.598798e-01 |
57.495299 | 9.598811e-01 |
57.503301 | 9.598811e-01 |
57.511302 | 9.598811e-01 |
57.519304 | 9.598820e-01 |
57.527305 | 9.598820e-01 |
57.535307 | 9.598820e-01 |
57.543309 | 9.598830e-01 |
57.551310 | 9.598830e-01 |
57.559312 | 9.598830e-01 |
57.567313 | 9.598833e-01 |
57.575315 | 9.598833e-01 |
57.583317 | 9.598833e-01 |
57.591318 | 9.598833e-01 |
57.599320 | 9.598855e-01 |
57.607321 | 9.598855e-01 |
57.615323 | 9.598855e-01 |
57.623325 | 9.598855e-01 |
57.631326 | 9.598855e-01 |
57.639328 | 9.598862e-01 |
57.647329 | 9.598868e-01 |
57.655331 | 9.598871e-01 |
57.663333 | 9.598878e-01 |
57.671334 | 9.598878e-01 |
57.679336 | 9.598878e-01 |
57.687337 | 9.598878e-01 |
57.695339 | 9.598887e-01 |
57.703341 | 9.598891e-01 |
57.711342 | 9.598899e-01 |
57.719344 | 9.598909e-01 |
57.727345 | 9.598928e-01 |
57.735347 | 9.598928e-01 |
57.743349 | 9.598931e-01 |
57.751350 | 9.598950e-01 |
57.759352 | 9.598953e-01 |
57.767353 | 9.598956e-01 |
57.775355 | 9.598959e-01 |
57.783357 | 9.598966e-01 |
57.791358 | 9.598966e-01 |
57.799360 | 9.598966e-01 |
57.807361 | 9.598979e-01 |
57.815363 | 9.598979e-01 |
57.823365 | 9.598988e-01 |
57.831366 | 9.598994e-01 |
57.839368 | 9.599004e-01 |
57.847369 | 9.599010e-01 |
57.855371 | 9.599010e-01 |
57.863373 | 9.599010e-01 |
57.871374 | 9.599014e-01 |
57.879376 | 9.599017e-01 |
57.887377 | 9.599023e-01 |
57.895379 | 9.599026e-01 |
57.903381 | 9.599026e-01 |
57.911382 | 9.599026e-01 |
57.919384 | 9.599033e-01 |
57.927385 | 9.599048e-01 |
57.935387 | 9.599067e-01 |
57.943389 | 9.599080e-01 |
57.951390 | 9.599080e-01 |
57.959392 | 9.599080e-01 |
57.967393 | 9.599083e-01 |
57.975395 | 9.599083e-01 |
57.983397 | 9.599092e-01 |
57.991398 | 9.599099e-01 |
57.999400 | 9.599099e-01 |
58.007401 | 9.599099e-01 |
58.015403 | 9.599099e-01 |
58.023405 | 9.599112e-01 |
58.031406 | 9.599112e-01 |
58.039408 | 9.599121e-01 |
58.047409 | 9.599121e-01 |
58.055411 | 9.599121e-01 |
58.063413 | 9.599121e-01 |
58.071414 | 9.599121e-01 |
58.079416 | 9.599121e-01 |
58.087417 | 9.599151e-01 |
58.095419 | 9.599151e-01 |
58.103421 | 9.599157e-01 |
58.111422 | 9.599160e-01 |
58.119424 | 9.599176e-01 |
58.127425 | 9.599182e-01 |
58.135427 | 9.599182e-01 |
58.143429 | 9.599188e-01 |
58.151430 | 9.599188e-01 |
58.159432 | 9.599188e-01 |
58.167433 | 9.599188e-01 |
58.175435 | 9.599195e-01 |
58.183437 | 9.599195e-01 |
58.191438 | 9.599195e-01 |
58.199440 | 9.599195e-01 |
58.207441 | 9.599208e-01 |
58.215443 | 9.599208e-01 |
58.223445 | 9.599208e-01 |
58.231446 | 9.599214e-01 |
58.239448 | 9.599214e-01 |
58.247449 | 9.599214e-01 |
58.255451 | 9.599214e-01 |
58.263453 | 9.599220e-01 |
58.271454 | 9.599233e-01 |
58.279456 | 9.599239e-01 |
58.287457 | 9.599239e-01 |
58.295459 | 9.599239e-01 |
58.303461 | 9.599243e-01 |
58.311462 | 9.599243e-01 |
58.319464 | 9.599243e-01 |
58.327465 | 9.599243e-01 |
58.335467 | 9.599243e-01 |
58.343469 | 9.599246e-01 |
58.351470 | 9.599252e-01 |
58.359472 | 9.599252e-01 |
58.367473 | 9.599252e-01 |
58.375475 | 9.599262e-01 |
58.383477 | 9.599262e-01 |
58.391478 | 9.599262e-01 |
58.399480 | 9.599262e-01 |
58.407482 | 9.599262e-01 |
58.415483 | 9.599262e-01 |
58.423485 | 9.599262e-01 |
58.431486 | 9.599265e-01 |
58.439488 | 9.599265e-01 |
58.447490 | 9.599265e-01 |
58.455491 | 9.599271e-01 |
58.463493 | 9.599271e-01 |
58.471494 | 9.599271e-01 |
58.479496 | 9.599271e-01 |
58.487498 | 9.599271e-01 |
58.495499 | 9.599275e-01 |
58.503501 | 9.599275e-01 |
58.511502 | 9.599275e-01 |
58.519504 | 9.599303e-01 |
58.527505 | 9.599303e-01 |
58.535507 | 9.599306e-01 |
58.543509 | 9.599306e-01 |
58.551510 | 9.599306e-01 |
58.559512 | 9.599306e-01 |
58.567513 | 9.599306e-01 |
58.575515 | 9.599306e-01 |
58.583517 | 9.599312e-01 |
58.591518 | 9.599331e-01 |
58.599520 | 9.599331e-01 |
58.607521 | 9.599331e-01 |
58.615523 | 9.599331e-01 |
58.623525 | 9.599340e-01 |
58.631526 | 9.599353e-01 |
58.639528 | 9.599353e-01 |
58.647530 | 9.599353e-01 |
58.655531 | 9.599356e-01 |
58.663533 | 9.599356e-01 |
58.671534 | 9.599362e-01 |
58.679536 | 9.599362e-01 |
58.687538 | 9.599362e-01 |
58.695539 | 9.599362e-01 |
58.703541 | 9.599362e-01 |
58.711542 | 9.599362e-01 |
58.719544 | 9.599372e-01 |
58.727546 | 9.599375e-01 |
58.735547 | 9.599381e-01 |
58.743549 | 9.599381e-01 |
58.751550 | 9.599381e-01 |
58.759552 | 9.599388e-01 |
58.767554 | 9.599388e-01 |
58.775555 | 9.599388e-01 |
58.783557 | 9.599391e-01 |
58.791558 | 9.599406e-01 |
58.799560 | 9.599406e-01 |
58.807562 | 9.599406e-01 |
58.815563 | 9.599409e-01 |
58.823565 | 9.599409e-01 |
58.831566 | 9.599412e-01 |
58.839568 | 9.599428e-01 |
58.847570 | 9.599428e-01 |
58.855571 | 9.599431e-01 |
58.863573 | 9.599438e-01 |
58.871574 | 9.599438e-01 |
58.879576 | 9.599438e-01 |
58.887578 | 9.599438e-01 |
58.895579 | 9.599438e-01 |
58.903581 | 9.599444e-01 |
58.911582 | 9.599444e-01 |
58.919584 | 9.599466e-01 |
58.927586 | 9.599475e-01 |
58.935587 | 9.599475e-01 |
58.943589 | 9.599475e-01 |
58.951590 | 9.599482e-01 |
58.959592 | 9.599482e-01 |
58.967594 | 9.599482e-01 |
58.975595 | 9.599482e-01 |
58.983597 | 9.599488e-01 |
58.991598 | 9.599488e-01 |
58.999600 | 9.599488e-01 |
59.007602 | 9.599488e-01 |
59.015603 | 9.599488e-01 |
59.023605 | 9.599488e-01 |
59.031606 | 9.599488e-01 |
59.039608 | 9.599498e-01 |
59.047610 | 9.599507e-01 |
59.055611 | 9.599510e-01 |
59.063613 | 9.599510e-01 |
59.071614 | 9.599517e-01 |
59.079616 | 9.599523e-01 |
59.087618 | 9.599523e-01 |
59.095619 | 9.599523e-01 |
59.103621 | 9.599530e-01 |
59.111622 | 9.599530e-01 |
59.119624 | 9.599530e-01 |
59.127626 | 9.599533e-01 |
59.135627 | 9.599536e-01 |
59.143629 | 9.599536e-01 |
59.151630 | 9.599536e-01 |
59.159632 | 9.599539e-01 |
59.167634 | 9.599542e-01 |
59.175635 | 9.599542e-01 |
59.183637 | 9.599542e-01 |
59.191638 | 9.599542e-01 |
59.199640 | 9.599562e-01 |
59.207642 | 9.599562e-01 |
59.215643 | 9.599562e-01 |
59.223645 | 9.599568e-01 |
59.231646 | 9.599568e-01 |
59.239648 | 9.599568e-01 |
59.247650 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.255651 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.263653 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.271654 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.279656 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.287658 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.295659 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.303661 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.311662 | 9.599584e-01 |
59.319664 | 9.599587e-01 |
59.327666 | 9.599587e-01 |
59.335667 | 9.599596e-01 |
59.343669 | 9.599596e-01 |
59.351670 | 9.599596e-01 |
59.359672 | 9.599606e-01 |
59.367674 | 9.599606e-01 |
59.375675 | 9.599606e-01 |
59.383677 | 9.599612e-01 |
59.391678 | 9.599612e-01 |
59.399680 | 9.599616e-01 |
59.407682 | 9.599616e-01 |
59.415683 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.423685 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.431686 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.439688 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.447690 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.455691 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.463693 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.471694 | 9.599622e-01 |
59.479696 | 9.599625e-01 |
59.487698 | 9.599625e-01 |
59.495699 | 9.599625e-01 |
59.503701 | 9.599625e-01 |
59.511702 | 9.599625e-01 |
59.519704 | 9.599632e-01 |
59.527706 | 9.599632e-01 |
59.535707 | 9.599632e-01 |
59.543709 | 9.599632e-01 |
59.551710 | 9.599632e-01 |
59.559712 | 9.599632e-01 |
59.567714 | 9.599641e-01 |
59.575715 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.583717 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.591718 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.599720 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.607722 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.615723 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.623725 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.631726 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.639728 | 9.599644e-01 |
59.647730 | 9.599648e-01 |
59.655731 | 9.599648e-01 |
59.663733 | 9.599648e-01 |
59.671734 | 9.599660e-01 |
59.679736 | 9.599664e-01 |
59.687738 | 9.599667e-01 |
59.695739 | 9.599667e-01 |
59.703741 | 9.599667e-01 |
59.711742 | 9.599673e-01 |
59.719744 | 9.599673e-01 |
59.727746 | 9.599673e-01 |
59.735747 | 9.599673e-01 |
59.743749 | 9.599673e-01 |
59.751750 | 9.599673e-01 |
59.759752 | 9.599680e-01 |
59.767754 | 9.599692e-01 |
59.775755 | 9.599692e-01 |
59.783757 | 9.599692e-01 |
59.791758 | 9.599698e-01 |
59.799760 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.807762 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.815763 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.823765 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.831766 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.839768 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.847770 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.855771 | 9.599708e-01 |
59.863773 | 9.599714e-01 |
59.871774 | 9.599714e-01 |
59.879776 | 9.599714e-01 |
59.887778 | 9.599714e-01 |
59.895779 | 9.599714e-01 |
59.903781 | 9.599718e-01 |
59.911782 | 9.599718e-01 |
59.919784 | 9.599718e-01 |
59.927786 | 9.599718e-01 |
59.935787 | 9.599721e-01 |
59.943789 | 9.599721e-01 |
59.951790 | 9.599721e-01 |
59.959792 | 9.599721e-01 |
59.967794 | 9.599721e-01 |
59.975795 | 9.599721e-01 |
59.983797 | 9.599721e-01 |
59.991798 | 9.599727e-01 |
59.999800 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.007802 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.015803 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.023805 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.031806 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.039808 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.047810 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.055811 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.063813 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.071814 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.079816 | 9.599727e-01 |
60.087818 | 9.599734e-01 |
60.095819 | 9.599734e-01 |
60.103821 | 9.599734e-01 |
60.111822 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.119824 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.127826 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.135827 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.143829 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.151830 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.159832 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.167834 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.175835 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.183837 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.191838 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.199840 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.207842 | 9.599758e-01 |
60.215843 | 9.599765e-01 |
60.223845 | 9.599765e-01 |
60.231846 | 9.599765e-01 |
60.239848 | 9.599765e-01 |
60.247850 | 9.599765e-01 |
60.255851 | 9.599768e-01 |
60.263853 | 9.599768e-01 |
60.271854 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.279856 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.287858 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.295859 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.303861 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.311862 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.319864 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.327866 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.335867 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.343869 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.351870 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.359872 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.367874 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.375875 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.383877 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.391878 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.399880 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.407882 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.415883 | 9.599771e-01 |
60.423885 | 9.599774e-01 |
60.431886 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.439888 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.447890 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.455891 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.463893 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.471894 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.479896 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.487898 | 9.599781e-01 |
60.495899 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.503901 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.511902 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.519904 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.527906 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.535907 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.543909 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.551910 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.559912 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.567914 | 9.599784e-01 |
60.575915 | 9.599809e-01 |
60.583917 | 9.599809e-01 |
60.591918 | 9.599815e-01 |
60.599920 | 9.599815e-01 |
60.607922 | 9.599815e-01 |
60.615923 | 9.599815e-01 |
60.623925 | 9.599815e-01 |
60.631926 | 9.599815e-01 |
60.639928 | 9.599815e-01 |
60.647930 | 9.599818e-01 |
60.655931 | 9.599828e-01 |
60.663933 | 9.599828e-01 |
60.671934 | 9.599828e-01 |
60.679936 | 9.599828e-01 |
60.687938 | 9.599828e-01 |
60.695939 | 9.599834e-01 |
60.703941 | 9.599834e-01 |
60.711942 | 9.599834e-01 |
60.719944 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.727946 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.735947 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.743949 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.751950 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.759952 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.767954 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.775955 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.783957 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.791958 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.799960 | 9.599837e-01 |
60.807962 | 9.599850e-01 |
60.815963 | 9.599850e-01 |
60.823965 | 9.599850e-01 |
60.831966 | 9.599850e-01 |
60.839968 | 9.599850e-01 |
60.847970 | 9.599850e-01 |
60.855971 | 9.599856e-01 |
60.863973 | 9.599856e-01 |
60.871974 | 9.599856e-01 |
60.879976 | 9.599856e-01 |
60.887978 | 9.599856e-01 |
60.895979 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.903981 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.911982 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.919984 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.927986 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.935987 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.943989 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.951990 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.959992 | 9.599859e-01 |
60.967994 | 9.599869e-01 |
60.975995 | 9.599881e-01 |
60.983997 | 9.599881e-01 |
60.991998 | 9.599881e-01 |
100.000000 | 9.700000e-01 |
100.000000 | 1.000000e+00 |
Show
Conservative | Best guess | Aggressive | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | sampled from Cotra's distribution (click here to view) | |||
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 1.000000e+08 | 1.000000e+04 | 1.000000e+01 | |
Training goods vs R&D | 1.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+01 | |
AGI runtime requirements | 3.153600e+27 | 5.256000e+23 | 3.153600e+22 | |
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 1.000000e+02 | 3.000000e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | |
Runtime goods vs R&D | 3.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+02 | |
Trade-off efficiency | 3.000000e+00 | 1.500000e+00 | 8.000000e-01 | |
Maximum trade-off | 1.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+03 | |
Labour substitution goods | -2.000000e+00 | -5.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 | |
Labour substitution R&D | -2.000000e+00 | -5.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 | |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | -2.000000e+00 | -4.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 | |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | -5.000000e-01 | -2.500000e-01 | -1.700000e-01 | |
Research experiments substitution software | -1.000000e-02 | |||
Efficiency of experiments for software R&D | 4.000000e-01 | |||
Returns to hardware | 3.000000e+00 | 5.200000e+00 | 7.000000e+00 | |
Returns to software | 8.000000e-01 | 1.250000e+00 | 5.000000e+00 | |
Maximum hardware performance | 1.000000e+23 | 1.000000e+26 | 1.000000e+29 | |
Maximum software performance | 1.000000e+08 | 1.000000e+12 | 1.000000e+16 | |
R&D parallelization penalty | 2.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 9.900000e-01 | |
Hardware adoption delay | 2.500000e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000000e-02 | |
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | |||
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | |||
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 7.000000e-02 | 1.900000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 | |
Growth rate fraction compute training | 9.312925e-01 | 5.475284e-01 | 1.637642e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 1.400000e-01 | 3.200000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 1.400000e-01 | 3.200000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.700000e-01 | 6.700000e-01 | 1.370000e+00 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.200000e-01 | 2.200000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 2.700000e-01 | 6.700000e-01 | 1.370000e+00 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 7.000000e-02 | 1.900000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 5.500000e-01 | 1.100000e+00 | 4.500000e+00 | |
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.500000e-01 | |
Max fraction labour software R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction compute software R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.500000e-01 | |
Max fraction GWP compute | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction compute training | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | |
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | |||
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | |||
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | |||
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | |||
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | |||
Initial biggest training run | 3.000000e+24 | |||
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 4.700000e-02 | |||
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 2.000000e-01 | |||
Initial hardware production | 1.000000e+27 | 1.000000e+28 | 1.000000e+29 | |
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 2.000000e+00 | |||
Initial market hardware performance | 1.500000e+17 | |||
Initial GWP | 8.500000e+13 | |||
Initial world labour force. | 4.000000e+09 | |||
Initial cognitive share goods | 3.000000e-01 | 5.000000e-01 | 6.500000e-01 | |
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 7.000000e-01 | |||
Initial compute share goods | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Initial compute share R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Initial experiment share software R&D | 3.000000e-01 | |||
Wakeup trigger | 1.000000e-02 | 6.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | |
Initial capital growth rate | 2.750000e-02 | |||
Population growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | |||
TFP growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Compute depreciation rate | 1.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | |
Money threshold training | 2.000000e+10 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+08 | |
Training requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 | |||
Runtime requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 |
Here, you will find the distributions of results that come from sampling the parameters according to Tom Davidson's beliefs but with an aggressive distribution for the amount of FLOP required to train an AGI. The median training requirements for AGI are ~1e31 FLOP using 2022 algorithms.
Probability of full economic automation before 2100 : 97%
Probability of slow takeoff : 49%
Show
Quantile | Powerful sub-AGI year | AGI year | 20% automation year | 100% automation year | 20% R&D automation year | 100% R&D automation year | Wake-up year | 20-100% economic automation | 20-100% R&D automation | Powerful sub-AGI to AGI | 2X to 10X cognitive output multiplier | 5% to 20% GWP growth |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.01 | 2023.1 | 2024.4 | 2024.3 | 2024.8 | 2023.2 | 2024.7 | 2023.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
0.10 | 2024.6 | 2026.3 | 2026.1 | 2027.0 | 2024.6 | 2026.8 | 2025.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
0.20 | 2025.8 | 2027.8 | 2027.3 | 2028.6 | 2025.6 | 2028.4 | 2026.5 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
0.50 | 2030.0 | 2032.9 | 2031.4 | 2033.7 | 2029.0 | 2033.2 | 2030.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
0.80 | 2038.9 | 2043.7 | 2039.9 | 2044.1 | 2036.4 | 2043.3 | 2038.1 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
0.90 | 2048.2 | 2054.7 | 2047.9 | 2054.9 | 2043.5 | 2053.7 | 2045.8 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 5.6 |
0.99 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | ≥ 2100 | 20.0 | 24.2 | 19.7 | 13.3 | 19.0 |
mean | 2034.8 | 2038.1 | 2035.8 | 2038.7 | 2033.2 | 2038.2 | 2034.5 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Show
Show
Timelines vs takeoff
"Years before full economic automation" tables
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 5.1 |
10% | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 12.1 |
20% | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 6.4 | 20.0 |
50% | 3.9 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 19.9 | 21.5 |
80% | 9.9 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 22.8 | 23.3 |
90% | 11.6 | 4.9 | 10.4 | 23.9 | 24.5 |
99% | 14.2 | 12.0 | 21.5 | 26.2 | 27.0 |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
10% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
20% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
50% | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
80% | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
90% | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 4.6 |
99% | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 5.5 |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
10% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
20% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
50% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
80% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
90% | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
99% | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 6.8 |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 3.8e+28 | 4.9e+25 | 9.2e+24 | 9.1e+22 | 1.5e+19 |
10% | 1.3e+30 | 1.2e+27 | 1.7e+26 | 3.0e+24 | 3.3e+21 |
20% | 8.9e+30 | 1.1e+28 | 1.4e+27 | 2.1e+25 | 4.0e+22 |
50% | 1.3e+33 | 1.4e+30 | 1.9e+29 | 4.8e+27 | 1.4e+25 |
80% | 2.9e+36 | 1.4e+33 | 2.0e+32 | 5.8e+30 | 1.0e+29 |
90% | 3.2e+38 | 1.2e+35 | 1.9e+34 | 6.2e+32 | 1.2e+31 |
99% | 5.1e+43 | 7.7e+39 | 2.0e+39 | 1.3e+38 | 8.0e+36 |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
10% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
20% | 0.47% | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
50% | 3.40% | 1.67% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
80% | 7.14% | 5.25% | 4.34% | 3.00% | 0.73% |
90% | 10.44% | 8.07% | 6.71% | 4.43% | 3.12% |
99% | 16.89% | 15.59% | 14.16% | 11.64% | 8.56% |
Percentile | At time of full economic automation | 1 year before | 2 years before | 5 years before | 10 years before |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
10% | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.02% |
20% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.03% |
50% | 0.77% | 0.66% | 0.56% | 0.33% | 0.13% |
80% | 3.18% | 2.91% | 2.46% | 1.44% | 0.57% |
90% | 4.99% | 4.61% | 4.28% | 3.45% | 1.88% |
99% | 14.70% | 13.82% | 13.01% | 10.90% | 8.28% |
Inputs
Number of samples: 10000
Rank correlations: click here to view.
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | Effective FLOP gap (training) | Training goods vs R&D | AGI runtime requirements | Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | Runtime goods vs R&D | Trade-off efficiency | Maximum trade-off | Labour substitution goods | Labour substitution R&D | Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | Returns to hardware | Returns to software | Maximum hardware performance | Maximum software performance | R&D parallelization penalty | Hardware adoption delay | Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | Growth rate fraction GWP compute | Growth rate fraction compute training | Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | Max fraction capital hardware R&D | Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | Max fraction labour software R&D | Max fraction compute software R&D | Max fraction GWP compute | Max fraction compute training | Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | Initial fraction labour software R&D | Initial fraction compute software R&D | Initial biggest training run | Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | Initial hardware production | Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | Initial market hardware performance | Initial GWP | Initial cognitive share goods | Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | Initial compute share goods | Initial compute share R&D | Wakeup trigger | Initial capital growth rate | Population growth rate | TFP growth rate | Compute depreciation rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Training goods vs R&D | -0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AGI runtime requirements | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Runtime goods vs R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade-off efficiency | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maximum trade-off | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Labour substitution goods | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Labour substitution R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Returns to hardware | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Returns to software | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maximum hardware performance | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maximum software performance | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.6 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
R&D parallelization penalty | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hardware adoption delay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Growth rate fraction compute training | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction labour software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction compute software R&D | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction GWP compute | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Max fraction compute training | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||||
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Initial biggest training run | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||||
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||
Initial hardware production | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||
Initial market hardware performance | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||||||
Initial GWP | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
Initial cognitive share goods | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Initial compute share goods | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
Initial compute share R&D | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Wakeup trigger | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Initial capital growth rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Population growth rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
TFP growth rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
Compute depreciation rate | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Input statistics: click here to view.
mean | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.99 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | 2.020000e+98 | 1.543100e+26 | 2.947653e+27 | 3.278864e+28 | 1.407907e+31 | 2.176121e+35 | 4.304109e+38 | 1.000000e+100 |
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 3.102551e+06 | 1.034598e+01 | 1.489120e+01 | 2.395987e+01 | 1.786659e+02 | 1.078692e+04 | 5.417018e+05 | 9.454842e+07 |
Training goods vs R&D | 7.990905e+00 | 1.084911e+00 | 1.468364e+00 | 1.885676e+00 | 4.210279e+00 | 1.416556e+01 | 2.140948e+01 | 2.999623e+01 |
AGI runtime requirements | 6.111729e+18 | 1.285145e+15 | 2.061818e+15 | 3.644024e+15 | 2.092978e+16 | 2.952590e+18 | 1.806255e+19 | 1.000000e+20 |
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 8.748168e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000064e+00 | 1.018052e+01 | 2.646889e+01 | 9.856368e+01 |
Runtime goods vs R&D | 1.190508e+02 | 3.075687e+01 | 3.786036e+01 | 4.797393e+01 | 9.944134e+01 | 1.910344e+02 | 2.401782e+02 | 2.932185e+02 |
Trade-off efficiency | 1.642484e+00 | 8.103844e-01 | 9.075755e-01 | 1.023471e+00 | 1.501696e+00 | 2.284265e+00 | 2.606962e+00 | 2.956331e+00 |
Maximum trade-off | 1.443666e+02 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000005e+00 | 1.000251e+00 | 4.619581e+00 | 2.514228e+02 | 5.374685e+02 | 9.998658e+02 |
Labour substitution goods | -6.982235e-01 | -1.934800e+00 | -1.505911e+00 | -1.120319e+00 | -4.989051e-01 | -2.843800e-01 | -2.379661e-01 | -2.032280e-01 |
Labour substitution R&D | -6.927768e-01 | -1.947795e+00 | -1.471836e+00 | -1.109989e+00 | -4.992908e-01 | -2.880586e-01 | -2.399371e-01 | -2.033632e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | -6.394482e-01 | -1.938190e+00 | -1.440606e+00 | -1.052187e+00 | -3.985077e-01 | -2.619248e-01 | -2.283565e-01 | -2.026219e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | -2.842075e-01 | -4.918137e-01 | -4.346422e-01 | -3.797611e-01 | -2.509535e-01 | -1.984685e-01 | -1.834949e-01 | -1.713464e-01 |
Research experiments substitution software | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 | -1.000000e-02 |
Efficiency of experiments for software R&D | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 | 4.000000e-01 |
Returns to hardware | 5.006149e+00 | 3.033254e+00 | 3.347289e+00 | 3.710550e+00 | 5.147606e+00 | 6.211485e+00 | 6.591395e+00 | 6.960303e+00 |
Returns to software | 1.829073e+00 | 8.067406e-01 | 8.751246e-01 | 9.578004e-01 | 1.245394e+00 | 2.808626e+00 | 3.722893e+00 | 4.843713e+00 |
Maximum hardware performance | 7.295947e+27 | 1.155238e+23 | 3.812670e+23 | 1.568953e+24 | 1.014241e+26 | 6.304928e+27 | 2.492247e+28 | 8.710962e+28 |
Maximum software performance | 5.807135e+14 | 2.275680e+08 | 1.069942e+09 | 6.872156e+09 | 1.270311e+12 | 2.389312e+14 | 1.630626e+15 | 1.000000e+16 |
R&D parallelization penalty | 6.738294e-01 | 2.077071e-01 | 2.816854e-01 | 3.815681e-01 | 6.999548e-01 | 9.575122e-01 | 9.791785e-01 | 9.891393e-01 |
Hardware adoption delay | 9.356649e-01 | 1.107027e-02 | 2.650758e-02 | 6.641487e-02 | 1.006894e+00 | 1.739022e+00 | 2.094667e+00 | 2.457158e+00 |
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 | 1.800000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 1.954850e-01 | 7.145238e-02 | 8.571557e-02 | 1.051893e-01 | 1.884809e-01 | 2.849887e-01 | 3.249107e-01 | 3.655647e-01 |
Growth rate fraction compute training | 5.191836e-01 | 1.679795e-01 | 2.098064e-01 | 2.648268e-01 | 5.467955e-01 | 7.471177e-01 | 8.366044e-01 | 9.213063e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.213168e-01 | 5.020636e-02 | 5.640233e-02 | 6.478108e-02 | 1.032330e-01 | 1.742868e-01 | 2.171064e-01 | 2.900026e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.214170e-01 | 5.014603e-02 | 5.659427e-02 | 6.497348e-02 | 1.036950e-01 | 1.764785e-01 | 2.157309e-01 | 2.880615e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 5.809463e-01 | 2.708400e-01 | 3.018637e-01 | 3.409788e-01 | 5.104441e-01 | 8.069272e-01 | 9.802646e-01 | 1.271234e+00 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.975303e-01 | 1.203150e-01 | 1.289153e-01 | 1.401001e-01 | 1.825327e-01 | 2.527974e-01 | 2.890244e-01 | 3.507151e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 5.806764e-01 | 2.708670e-01 | 3.007648e-01 | 3.398577e-01 | 5.118777e-01 | 8.072607e-01 | 9.738194e-01 | 1.274915e+00 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 1.596537e-01 | 7.023364e-02 | 7.892855e-02 | 9.032446e-02 | 1.414458e-01 | 2.260925e-01 | 2.696241e-01 | 3.425962e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 1.189239e+00 | 5.513371e-01 | 5.952927e-01 | 6.573906e-01 | 8.961936e-01 | 1.628888e+00 | 2.307608e+00 | 3.775924e+00 |
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 2.848322e-02 | 1.003433e-02 | 1.142384e-02 | 1.324597e-02 | 2.193077e-02 | 4.180046e-02 | 5.701218e-02 | 8.830239e-02 |
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 2.839388e-02 | 1.004089e-02 | 1.130792e-02 | 1.332537e-02 | 2.182402e-02 | 4.193963e-02 | 5.690742e-02 | 8.834280e-02 |
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 1.535971e-01 | 5.021832e-02 | 5.920287e-02 | 7.262696e-02 | 1.350914e-01 | 2.350467e-01 | 2.711099e-01 | 3.297064e-01 |
Max fraction labour software R&D | 2.823367e-02 | 1.004376e-02 | 1.136669e-02 | 1.328819e-02 | 2.159944e-02 | 4.144992e-02 | 5.644527e-02 | 8.747025e-02 |
Max fraction compute software R&D | 1.539159e-01 | 5.022644e-02 | 5.950025e-02 | 7.292978e-02 | 1.362770e-01 | 2.347558e-01 | 2.725382e-01 | 3.303941e-01 |
Max fraction GWP compute | 9.114141e-02 | 3.012088e-02 | 3.484567e-02 | 4.144894e-02 | 7.106395e-02 | 1.367660e-01 | 1.838786e-01 | 2.656121e-01 |
Max fraction compute training | 8.173862e-02 | 3.011164e-02 | 3.458253e-02 | 4.093149e-02 | 7.079382e-02 | 1.213073e-01 | 1.458958e-01 | 1.867614e-01 |
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 |
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 | 2.000000e-04 |
Initial biggest training run | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 | 3.000000e+24 |
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 | 4.700000e-02 |
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 |
Initial hardware production | 2.151277e+28 | 1.046991e+27 | 1.583756e+27 | 2.481074e+27 | 1.007098e+28 | 3.967472e+28 | 6.290951e+28 | 9.527012e+28 |
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 | 2.000000e+00 |
Initial market hardware performance | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 | 1.500000e+17 |
Initial GWP | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 | 8.500000e+13 |
Initial world labour force. | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+09 |
Initial cognitive share goods | 4.851133e-01 | 3.033336e-01 | 3.352220e-01 | 3.727227e-01 | 4.968629e-01 | 5.899798e-01 | 6.217301e-01 | 6.469224e-01 |
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 |
Initial compute share goods | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Initial compute share R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Initial experiment share software R&D | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 |
Wakeup trigger | 7.286412e-02 | 1.038727e-02 | 1.430042e-02 | 2.064598e-02 | 6.010864e-02 | 1.249113e-01 | 1.602058e-01 | 1.958347e-01 |
Initial capital growth rate | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 | 2.750000e-02 |
Population growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
TFP growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-02 |
Compute depreciation rate | 1.970519e-01 | 1.016905e-01 | 1.158876e-01 | 1.336200e-01 | 2.003367e-01 | 2.575875e-01 | 2.791753e-01 | 2.978230e-01 |
Money threshold training | 5.761054e+09 | 4.229177e+08 | 6.230877e+08 | 1.001245e+09 | 4.011070e+09 | 1.052974e+10 | 1.447283e+10 | 1.943463e+10 |
Training requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 |
Runtime requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 | 0.000000e+00 |
Compute Levels | p(this much compute is enough to train AGI using 2020 algs) |
---|---|
21.000000 | 0.000000 |
21.008002 | 0.000000 |
21.016003 | 0.000000 |
21.024005 | 0.000000 |
21.032006 | 0.000000 |
21.040008 | 0.000000 |
21.048010 | 0.000000 |
21.056011 | 0.000000 |
21.064013 | 0.000000 |
21.072014 | 0.000000 |
21.080016 | 0.000000 |
21.088018 | 0.000000 |
21.096019 | 0.000000 |
21.104021 | 0.000000 |
21.112022 | 0.000000 |
21.120024 | 0.000000 |
21.128026 | 0.000000 |
21.136027 | 0.000000 |
21.144029 | 0.000000 |
21.152030 | 0.000000 |
21.160032 | 0.000000 |
21.168034 | 0.000000 |
21.176035 | 0.000000 |
21.184037 | 0.000000 |
21.192038 | 0.000000 |
21.200040 | 0.000000 |
21.208042 | 0.000000 |
21.216043 | 0.000000 |
21.224045 | 0.000000 |
21.232046 | 0.000000 |
21.240048 | 0.000000 |
21.248050 | 0.000000 |
21.256051 | 0.000000 |
21.264053 | 0.000000 |
21.272054 | 0.000000 |
21.280056 | 0.000000 |
21.288058 | 0.000000 |
21.296059 | 0.000000 |
21.304061 | 0.000000 |
21.312062 | 0.000000 |
21.320064 | 0.000000 |
21.328066 | 0.000000 |
21.336067 | 0.000000 |
21.344069 | 0.000000 |
21.352070 | 0.000000 |
21.360072 | 0.000000 |
21.368074 | 0.000000 |
21.376075 | 0.000000 |
21.384077 | 0.000000 |
21.392078 | 0.000000 |
21.400080 | 0.000000 |
21.408082 | 0.000000 |
21.416083 | 0.000000 |
21.424085 | 0.000000 |
21.432086 | 0.000000 |
21.440088 | 0.000000 |
21.448090 | 0.000000 |
21.456091 | 0.000000 |
21.464093 | 0.000000 |
21.472094 | 0.000000 |
21.480096 | 0.000000 |
21.488098 | 0.000000 |
21.496099 | 0.000000 |
21.504101 | 0.000000 |
21.512102 | 0.000000 |
21.520104 | 0.000000 |
21.528106 | 0.000000 |
21.536107 | 0.000000 |
21.544109 | 0.000000 |
21.552110 | 0.000000 |
21.560112 | 0.000000 |
21.568114 | 0.000000 |
21.576115 | 0.000000 |
21.584117 | 0.000000 |
21.592118 | 0.000000 |
21.600120 | 0.000000 |
21.608122 | 0.000000 |
21.616123 | 0.000000 |
21.624125 | 0.000000 |
21.632126 | 0.000000 |
21.640128 | 0.000000 |
21.648130 | 0.000000 |
21.656131 | 0.000000 |
21.664133 | 0.000000 |
21.672134 | 0.000000 |
21.680136 | 0.000000 |
21.688138 | 0.000000 |
21.696139 | 0.000000 |
21.704141 | 0.000000 |
21.712142 | 0.000000 |
21.720144 | 0.000000 |
21.728146 | 0.000000 |
21.736147 | 0.000000 |
21.744149 | 0.000000 |
21.752150 | 0.000000 |
21.760152 | 0.000000 |
21.768154 | 0.000000 |
21.776155 | 0.000000 |
21.784157 | 0.000000 |
21.792158 | 0.000000 |
21.800160 | 0.000000 |
21.808162 | 0.000000 |
21.816163 | 0.000000 |
21.824165 | 0.000000 |
21.832166 | 0.000000 |
21.840168 | 0.000000 |
21.848170 | 0.000000 |
21.856171 | 0.000000 |
21.864173 | 0.000000 |
21.872174 | 0.000000 |
21.880176 | 0.000000 |
21.888178 | 0.000000 |
21.896179 | 0.000000 |
21.904181 | 0.000000 |
21.912182 | 0.000000 |
21.920184 | 0.000000 |
21.928186 | 0.000000 |
21.936187 | 0.000000 |
21.944189 | 0.000000 |
21.952190 | 0.000000 |
21.960192 | 0.000000 |
21.968194 | 0.000000 |
21.976195 | 0.000000 |
21.984197 | 0.000000 |
21.992198 | 0.000000 |
22.000200 | 0.000000 |
22.008202 | 0.000000 |
22.016203 | 0.000000 |
22.024205 | 0.000000 |
22.032206 | 0.000000 |
22.040208 | 0.000000 |
22.048210 | 0.000000 |
22.056211 | 0.000000 |
22.064213 | 0.000000 |
22.072214 | 0.000000 |
22.080216 | 0.000000 |
22.088218 | 0.000000 |
22.096219 | 0.000000 |
22.104221 | 0.000000 |
22.112222 | 0.000000 |
22.120224 | 0.000000 |
22.128226 | 0.000000 |
22.136227 | 0.000000 |
22.144229 | 0.000000 |
22.152230 | 0.000000 |
22.160232 | 0.000000 |
22.168234 | 0.000000 |
22.176235 | 0.000000 |
22.184237 | 0.000000 |
22.192238 | 0.000000 |
22.200240 | 0.000000 |
22.208242 | 0.000000 |
22.216243 | 0.000000 |
22.224245 | 0.000000 |
22.232246 | 0.000000 |
22.240248 | 0.000000 |
22.248250 | 0.000000 |
22.256251 | 0.000000 |
22.264253 | 0.000000 |
22.272254 | 0.000000 |
22.280256 | 0.000000 |
22.288258 | 0.000000 |
22.296259 | 0.000000 |
22.304261 | 0.000000 |
22.312262 | 0.000000 |
22.320264 | 0.000000 |
22.328266 | 0.000000 |
22.336267 | 0.000000 |
22.344269 | 0.000000 |
22.352270 | 0.000000 |
22.360272 | 0.000000 |
22.368274 | 0.000000 |
22.376275 | 0.000000 |
22.384277 | 0.000000 |
22.392278 | 0.000000 |
22.400280 | 0.000000 |
22.408282 | 0.000000 |
22.416283 | 0.000000 |
22.424285 | 0.000000 |
22.432286 | 0.000000 |
22.440288 | 0.000000 |
22.448290 | 0.000000 |
22.456291 | 0.000000 |
22.464293 | 0.000000 |
22.472294 | 0.000000 |
22.480296 | 0.000000 |
22.488298 | 0.000000 |
22.496299 | 0.000000 |
22.504301 | 0.000000 |
22.512302 | 0.000000 |
22.520304 | 0.000000 |
22.528306 | 0.000000 |
22.536307 | 0.000000 |
22.544309 | 0.000000 |
22.552310 | 0.000000 |
22.560312 | 0.000000 |
22.568314 | 0.000000 |
22.576315 | 0.000000 |
22.584317 | 0.000000 |
22.592318 | 0.000000 |
22.600320 | 0.000000 |
22.608322 | 0.000000 |
22.616323 | 0.000000 |
22.624325 | 0.000000 |
22.632326 | 0.000000 |
22.640328 | 0.000000 |
22.648330 | 0.000000 |
22.656331 | 0.000000 |
22.664333 | 0.000000 |
22.672334 | 0.000000 |
22.680336 | 0.000000 |
22.688338 | 0.000000 |
22.696339 | 0.000000 |
22.704341 | 0.000000 |
22.712342 | 0.000000 |
22.720344 | 0.000000 |
22.728346 | 0.000000 |
22.736347 | 0.000000 |
22.744349 | 0.000000 |
22.752350 | 0.000000 |
22.760352 | 0.000000 |
22.768354 | 0.000000 |
22.776355 | 0.000000 |
22.784357 | 0.000000 |
22.792358 | 0.000000 |
22.800360 | 0.000000 |
22.808362 | 0.000000 |
22.816363 | 0.000000 |
22.824365 | 0.000000 |
22.832366 | 0.000000 |
22.840368 | 0.000000 |
22.848370 | 0.000000 |
22.856371 | 0.000000 |
22.864373 | 0.000000 |
22.872374 | 0.000000 |
22.880376 | 0.000000 |
22.888378 | 0.000000 |
22.896379 | 0.000000 |
22.904381 | 0.000000 |
22.912382 | 0.000000 |
22.920384 | 0.000000 |
22.928386 | 0.000000 |
22.936387 | 0.000000 |
22.944389 | 0.000000 |
22.952390 | 0.000000 |
22.960392 | 0.000000 |
22.968394 | 0.000000 |
22.976395 | 0.000000 |
22.984397 | 0.000000 |
22.992398 | 0.000000 |
23.000400 | 0.000000 |
23.008402 | 0.000000 |
23.016403 | 0.000000 |
23.024405 | 0.000000 |
23.032406 | 0.000000 |
23.040408 | 0.000000 |
23.048410 | 0.000000 |
23.056411 | 0.000000 |
23.064413 | 0.000000 |
23.072414 | 0.000000 |
23.080416 | 0.000000 |
23.088418 | 0.000000 |
23.096419 | 0.000000 |
23.104421 | 0.000000 |
23.112422 | 0.000000 |
23.120424 | 0.000000 |
23.128426 | 0.000000 |
23.136427 | 0.000000 |
23.144429 | 0.000000 |
23.152430 | 0.000000 |
23.160432 | 0.000000 |
23.168434 | 0.000000 |
23.176435 | 0.000000 |
23.184437 | 0.000000 |
23.192438 | 0.000000 |
23.200440 | 0.000000 |
23.208442 | 0.000000 |
23.216443 | 0.000000 |
23.224445 | 0.000000 |
23.232446 | 0.000000 |
23.240448 | 0.000000 |
23.248450 | 0.000000 |
23.256451 | 0.000000 |
23.264453 | 0.000000 |
23.272454 | 0.000000 |
23.280456 | 0.000000 |
23.288458 | 0.000000 |
23.296459 | 0.000000 |
23.304461 | 0.000000 |
23.312462 | 0.000000 |
23.320464 | 0.000000 |
23.328466 | 0.000000 |
23.336467 | 0.000000 |
23.344469 | 0.000000 |
23.352470 | 0.000000 |
23.360472 | 0.000000 |
23.368474 | 0.000000 |
23.376475 | 0.000000 |
23.384477 | 0.000000 |
23.392478 | 0.000000 |
23.400480 | 0.000000 |
23.408482 | 0.000000 |
23.416483 | 0.000000 |
23.424485 | 0.000000 |
23.432486 | 0.000000 |
23.440488 | 0.000000 |
23.448490 | 0.000000 |
23.456491 | 0.000000 |
23.464493 | 0.000000 |
23.472494 | 0.000000 |
23.480496 | 0.000000 |
23.488498 | 0.000000 |
23.496499 | 0.000000 |
23.504501 | 0.000000 |
23.512503 | 0.000000 |
23.520504 | 0.000000 |
23.528506 | 0.000000 |
23.536507 | 0.000000 |
23.544509 | 0.000000 |
23.552511 | 0.000000 |
23.560512 | 0.000000 |
23.568514 | 0.000000 |
23.576515 | 0.000000 |
23.584517 | 0.000000 |
23.592519 | 0.000000 |
23.600520 | 0.000000 |
23.608522 | 0.000000 |
23.616523 | 0.000000 |
23.624525 | 0.000000 |
23.632527 | 0.000000 |
23.640528 | 0.000000 |
23.648530 | 0.000000 |
23.656531 | 0.000000 |
23.664533 | 0.000000 |
23.672535 | 0.000000 |
23.680536 | 0.000000 |
23.688538 | 0.000000 |
23.696539 | 0.000000 |
23.704541 | 0.000000 |
23.712543 | 0.000000 |
23.720544 | 0.000000 |
23.728546 | 0.000000 |
23.736547 | 0.000000 |
23.744549 | 0.000000 |
23.752551 | 0.000000 |
23.760552 | 0.000000 |
23.768554 | 0.000000 |
23.776555 | 0.000000 |
23.784557 | 0.000000 |
23.792559 | 0.000000 |
23.800560 | 0.000000 |
23.808562 | 0.000000 |
23.816563 | 0.000000 |
23.824565 | 0.000000 |
23.832567 | 0.000000 |
23.840568 | 0.000000 |
23.848570 | 0.000000 |
23.856571 | 0.000000 |
23.864573 | 0.000000 |
23.872575 | 0.000000 |
23.880576 | 0.000000 |
23.888578 | 0.000000 |
23.896579 | 0.000000 |
23.904581 | 0.000000 |
23.912583 | 0.000000 |
23.920584 | 0.000000 |
23.928586 | 0.000000 |
23.936587 | 0.000000 |
23.944589 | 0.000000 |
23.952591 | 0.000000 |
23.960592 | 0.000000 |
23.968594 | 0.000000 |
23.976595 | 0.000000 |
23.984597 | 0.000000 |
23.992599 | 0.000000 |
24.000600 | 0.000000 |
24.008602 | 0.000000 |
24.016603 | 0.000000 |
24.024605 | 0.000001 |
24.032607 | 0.000004 |
24.040608 | 0.000006 |
24.048610 | 0.000011 |
24.056611 | 0.000012 |
24.064613 | 0.000018 |
24.072615 | 0.000025 |
24.080616 | 0.000027 |
24.088618 | 0.000036 |
24.096619 | 0.000051 |
24.104621 | 0.000068 |
24.112623 | 0.000078 |
24.120624 | 0.000088 |
24.128626 | 0.000092 |
24.136627 | 0.000105 |
24.144629 | 0.000112 |
24.152631 | 0.000122 |
24.160632 | 0.000135 |
24.168634 | 0.000137 |
24.176635 | 0.000144 |
24.184637 | 0.000165 |
24.192639 | 0.000176 |
24.200640 | 0.000196 |
24.208642 | 0.000214 |
24.216643 | 0.000231 |
24.224645 | 0.000251 |
24.232647 | 0.000260 |
24.240648 | 0.000280 |
24.248650 | 0.000296 |
24.256651 | 0.000320 |
24.264653 | 0.000348 |
24.272655 | 0.000372 |
24.280656 | 0.000408 |
24.288658 | 0.000434 |
24.296659 | 0.000457 |
24.304661 | 0.000474 |
24.312663 | 0.000492 |
24.320664 | 0.000531 |
24.328666 | 0.000558 |
24.336667 | 0.000604 |
24.344669 | 0.000625 |
24.352671 | 0.000650 |
24.360672 | 0.000694 |
24.368674 | 0.000724 |
24.376675 | 0.000785 |
24.384677 | 0.000831 |
24.392679 | 0.000885 |
24.400680 | 0.000915 |
24.408682 | 0.000954 |
24.416683 | 0.001003 |
24.424685 | 0.001046 |
24.432687 | 0.001109 |
24.440688 | 0.001157 |
24.448690 | 0.001219 |
24.456691 | 0.001273 |
24.464693 | 0.001334 |
24.472695 | 0.001379 |
24.480696 | 0.001436 |
24.488698 | 0.001497 |
24.496699 | 0.001556 |
24.504701 | 0.001617 |
24.512703 | 0.001653 |
24.520704 | 0.001712 |
24.528706 | 0.001774 |
24.536707 | 0.001831 |
24.544709 | 0.001892 |
24.552711 | 0.001961 |
24.560712 | 0.002029 |
24.568714 | 0.002098 |
24.576715 | 0.002137 |
24.584717 | 0.002199 |
24.592719 | 0.002278 |
24.600720 | 0.002365 |
24.608722 | 0.002434 |
24.616723 | 0.002520 |
24.624725 | 0.002575 |
24.632727 | 0.002636 |
24.640728 | 0.002705 |
24.648730 | 0.002758 |
24.656731 | 0.002822 |
24.664733 | 0.002922 |
24.672735 | 0.002975 |
24.680736 | 0.003043 |
24.688738 | 0.003127 |
24.696739 | 0.003219 |
24.704741 | 0.003290 |
24.712743 | 0.003354 |
24.720744 | 0.003452 |
24.728746 | 0.003549 |
24.736747 | 0.003651 |
24.744749 | 0.003770 |
24.752751 | 0.003853 |
24.760752 | 0.003965 |
24.768754 | 0.004036 |
24.776755 | 0.004127 |
24.784757 | 0.004244 |
24.792759 | 0.004348 |
24.800760 | 0.004485 |
24.808762 | 0.004582 |
24.816763 | 0.004662 |
24.824765 | 0.004814 |
24.832767 | 0.004918 |
24.840768 | 0.005012 |
24.848770 | 0.005096 |
24.856771 | 0.005176 |
24.864773 | 0.005308 |
24.872775 | 0.005417 |
24.880776 | 0.005538 |
24.888778 | 0.005667 |
24.896779 | 0.005765 |
24.904781 | 0.005894 |
24.912783 | 0.005998 |
24.920784 | 0.006107 |
24.928786 | 0.006249 |
24.936787 | 0.006355 |
24.944789 | 0.006472 |
24.952791 | 0.006584 |
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39.691738 | 0.920471 |
39.699740 | 0.920591 |
39.707742 | 0.920732 |
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59.039608 | 0.979994 |
59.047610 | 0.979994 |
59.055611 | 0.979994 |
59.063613 | 0.979994 |
59.071614 | 0.979994 |
59.079616 | 0.979994 |
59.087618 | 0.979994 |
59.095619 | 0.979994 |
59.103621 | 0.979994 |
59.111622 | 0.979994 |
59.119624 | 0.979994 |
59.127626 | 0.979994 |
59.135627 | 0.979995 |
59.143629 | 0.979995 |
59.151630 | 0.979995 |
59.159632 | 0.979995 |
59.167634 | 0.979995 |
59.175635 | 0.979995 |
59.183637 | 0.979995 |
59.191638 | 0.979995 |
59.199640 | 0.979995 |
59.207642 | 0.979995 |
59.215643 | 0.979995 |
59.223645 | 0.979995 |
59.231646 | 0.979995 |
59.239648 | 0.979995 |
59.247650 | 0.979995 |
59.255651 | 0.979995 |
59.263653 | 0.979995 |
59.271654 | 0.979995 |
59.279656 | 0.979995 |
59.287658 | 0.979995 |
59.295659 | 0.979995 |
59.303661 | 0.979995 |
59.311662 | 0.979995 |
59.319664 | 0.979995 |
59.327666 | 0.979995 |
59.335667 | 0.979995 |
59.343669 | 0.979995 |
59.351670 | 0.979995 |
59.359672 | 0.979995 |
59.367674 | 0.979995 |
59.375675 | 0.979995 |
59.383677 | 0.979995 |
59.391678 | 0.979995 |
59.399680 | 0.979995 |
59.407682 | 0.979995 |
59.415683 | 0.979996 |
59.423685 | 0.979996 |
59.431686 | 0.979996 |
59.439688 | 0.979996 |
59.447690 | 0.979996 |
59.455691 | 0.979996 |
59.463693 | 0.979996 |
59.471694 | 0.979996 |
59.479696 | 0.979996 |
59.487698 | 0.979996 |
59.495699 | 0.979996 |
59.503701 | 0.979996 |
59.511702 | 0.979996 |
59.519704 | 0.979996 |
59.527706 | 0.979996 |
59.535707 | 0.979996 |
59.543709 | 0.979996 |
59.551710 | 0.979996 |
59.559712 | 0.979996 |
59.567714 | 0.979996 |
59.575715 | 0.979996 |
59.583717 | 0.979996 |
59.591718 | 0.979996 |
59.599720 | 0.979996 |
59.607722 | 0.979996 |
59.615723 | 0.979996 |
59.623725 | 0.979996 |
59.631726 | 0.979996 |
59.639728 | 0.979996 |
59.647730 | 0.979996 |
59.655731 | 0.979996 |
59.663733 | 0.979996 |
59.671734 | 0.979996 |
59.679736 | 0.979996 |
59.687738 | 0.979996 |
59.695739 | 0.979996 |
59.703741 | 0.979996 |
59.711742 | 0.979996 |
59.719744 | 0.979996 |
59.727746 | 0.979996 |
59.735747 | 0.979996 |
59.743749 | 0.979996 |
59.751750 | 0.979996 |
59.759752 | 0.979996 |
59.767754 | 0.979996 |
59.775755 | 0.979996 |
59.783757 | 0.979996 |
59.791758 | 0.979996 |
59.799760 | 0.979997 |
59.807762 | 0.979997 |
59.815763 | 0.979997 |
59.823765 | 0.979997 |
59.831766 | 0.979997 |
59.839768 | 0.979997 |
59.847770 | 0.979997 |
59.855771 | 0.979997 |
59.863773 | 0.979997 |
59.871774 | 0.979997 |
59.879776 | 0.979997 |
59.887778 | 0.979997 |
59.895779 | 0.979997 |
59.903781 | 0.979997 |
59.911782 | 0.979997 |
59.919784 | 0.979997 |
59.927786 | 0.979997 |
59.935787 | 0.979997 |
59.943789 | 0.979997 |
59.951790 | 0.979997 |
59.959792 | 0.979997 |
59.967794 | 0.979997 |
59.975795 | 0.979997 |
59.983797 | 0.979997 |
59.991798 | 0.979997 |
59.999800 | 0.979997 |
60.007802 | 0.979997 |
60.015803 | 0.979997 |
60.023805 | 0.979997 |
60.031806 | 0.979997 |
60.039808 | 0.979997 |
60.047810 | 0.979997 |
60.055811 | 0.979997 |
60.063813 | 0.979997 |
60.071814 | 0.979997 |
60.079816 | 0.979997 |
60.087818 | 0.979997 |
60.095819 | 0.979997 |
60.103821 | 0.979997 |
60.111822 | 0.979997 |
60.119824 | 0.979997 |
60.127826 | 0.979997 |
60.135827 | 0.979997 |
60.143829 | 0.979997 |
60.151830 | 0.979997 |
60.159832 | 0.979997 |
60.167834 | 0.979997 |
60.175835 | 0.979997 |
60.183837 | 0.979997 |
60.191838 | 0.979997 |
60.199840 | 0.979997 |
60.207842 | 0.979997 |
60.215843 | 0.979997 |
60.223845 | 0.979997 |
60.231846 | 0.979997 |
60.239848 | 0.979997 |
60.247850 | 0.979997 |
60.255851 | 0.979997 |
60.263853 | 0.979997 |
60.271854 | 0.979997 |
60.279856 | 0.979997 |
60.287858 | 0.979997 |
60.295859 | 0.979997 |
60.303861 | 0.979997 |
60.311862 | 0.979997 |
60.319864 | 0.979997 |
60.327866 | 0.979997 |
60.335867 | 0.979997 |
60.343869 | 0.979997 |
60.351870 | 0.979997 |
60.359872 | 0.979997 |
60.367874 | 0.979997 |
60.375875 | 0.979997 |
60.383877 | 0.979997 |
60.391878 | 0.979997 |
60.399880 | 0.979997 |
60.407882 | 0.979997 |
60.415883 | 0.979997 |
60.423885 | 0.979997 |
60.431886 | 0.979997 |
60.439888 | 0.979997 |
60.447890 | 0.979997 |
60.455891 | 0.979997 |
60.463893 | 0.979997 |
60.471894 | 0.979997 |
60.479896 | 0.979997 |
60.487898 | 0.979997 |
60.495899 | 0.979997 |
60.503901 | 0.979997 |
60.511902 | 0.979997 |
60.519904 | 0.979997 |
60.527906 | 0.979997 |
60.535907 | 0.979997 |
60.543909 | 0.979997 |
60.551910 | 0.979997 |
60.559912 | 0.979997 |
60.567914 | 0.979997 |
60.575915 | 0.979997 |
60.583917 | 0.979997 |
60.591918 | 0.979998 |
60.599920 | 0.979998 |
60.607922 | 0.979998 |
60.615923 | 0.979998 |
60.623925 | 0.979998 |
60.631926 | 0.979998 |
60.639928 | 0.979998 |
60.647930 | 0.979998 |
60.655931 | 0.979998 |
60.663933 | 0.979998 |
60.671934 | 0.979998 |
60.679936 | 0.979998 |
60.687938 | 0.979998 |
60.695939 | 0.979998 |
60.703941 | 0.979998 |
60.711942 | 0.979998 |
60.719944 | 0.979998 |
60.727946 | 0.979998 |
60.735947 | 0.979998 |
60.743949 | 0.979998 |
60.751950 | 0.979998 |
60.759952 | 0.979998 |
60.767954 | 0.979998 |
60.775955 | 0.979998 |
60.783957 | 0.979998 |
60.791958 | 0.979998 |
60.799960 | 0.979998 |
60.807962 | 0.979998 |
60.815963 | 0.979998 |
60.823965 | 0.979998 |
60.831966 | 0.979998 |
60.839968 | 0.979998 |
60.847970 | 0.979998 |
60.855971 | 0.979998 |
60.863973 | 0.979998 |
60.871974 | 0.979998 |
60.879976 | 0.979998 |
60.887978 | 0.979998 |
60.895979 | 0.979998 |
60.903981 | 0.979998 |
60.911982 | 0.979998 |
60.919984 | 0.979998 |
60.927986 | 0.979998 |
60.935987 | 0.979998 |
60.943989 | 0.979998 |
60.951990 | 0.979998 |
60.959992 | 0.979998 |
60.967994 | 0.979998 |
60.975995 | 0.979998 |
60.983997 | 0.979998 |
60.991998 | 0.979998 |
100.000000 | 0.980000 |
100.000000 | 1.000000 |
Show
Conservative | Best guess | Aggressive | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | sampled from an aggressive distribution (click here to view) | |||
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 1.000000e+08 | 1.000000e+04 | 1.000000e+01 | |
Training goods vs R&D | 1.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+01 | |
AGI runtime requirements | 1.000000e+20 | 1.666670e+16 | 1.000000e+15 | |
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 1.000000e+02 | 1.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+00 | |
Runtime goods vs R&D | 3.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+02 | 3.000000e+02 | |
Trade-off efficiency | 3.000000e+00 | 1.500000e+00 | 8.000000e-01 | |
Maximum trade-off | 1.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+03 | |
Labour substitution goods | -2.000000e+00 | -5.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 | |
Labour substitution R&D | -2.000000e+00 | -5.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 | |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | -2.000000e+00 | -4.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 | |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | -5.000000e-01 | -2.500000e-01 | -1.700000e-01 | |
Research experiments substitution software | -1.000000e-02 | |||
Efficiency of experiments for software R&D | 4.000000e-01 | |||
Returns to hardware | 3.000000e+00 | 5.200000e+00 | 7.000000e+00 | |
Returns to software | 8.000000e-01 | 1.250000e+00 | 5.000000e+00 | |
Maximum hardware performance | 1.000000e+23 | 1.000000e+26 | 1.000000e+29 | |
Maximum software performance | 1.000000e+08 | 1.000000e+12 | 1.000000e+16 | |
R&D parallelization penalty | 2.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 9.900000e-01 | |
Hardware adoption delay | 2.500000e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000000e-02 | |
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | |||
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | |||
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 7.000000e-02 | 1.900000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 | |
Growth rate fraction compute training | 9.312925e-01 | 5.475284e-01 | 1.637642e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 1.400000e-01 | 3.200000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 1.400000e-01 | 3.200000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.700000e-01 | 6.700000e-01 | 1.370000e+00 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.200000e-01 | 2.200000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 2.700000e-01 | 6.700000e-01 | 1.370000e+00 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 7.000000e-02 | 1.900000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 | |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 5.500000e-01 | 1.100000e+00 | 4.500000e+00 | |
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.500000e-01 | |
Max fraction labour software R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction compute software R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.500000e-01 | |
Max fraction GWP compute | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | |
Max fraction compute training | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | |
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | |||
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | |||
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | |||
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | |||
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | |||
Initial biggest training run | 3.000000e+24 | |||
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 4.700000e-02 | |||
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 2.000000e-01 | |||
Initial hardware production | 1.000000e+27 | 1.000000e+28 | 1.000000e+29 | |
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 2.000000e+00 | |||
Initial market hardware performance | 1.500000e+17 | |||
Initial GWP | 8.500000e+13 | |||
Initial world labour force. | 4.000000e+09 | |||
Initial cognitive share goods | 3.000000e-01 | 5.000000e-01 | 6.500000e-01 | |
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 7.000000e-01 | |||
Initial compute share goods | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Initial compute share R&D | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Initial experiment share software R&D | 3.000000e-01 | |||
Wakeup trigger | 1.000000e-02 | 6.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | |
Initial capital growth rate | 2.750000e-02 | |||
Population growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | |||
TFP growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | |||
Compute depreciation rate | 1.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 | |
Money threshold training | 2.000000e+10 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+08 | |
Training requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 | |||
Runtime requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 |
Here, you will find a sensitivity analysis we run, highlighting the most important parameters for pinning down the results of the model.
One-at-a-time
Show
Importance | Variance reduction | Powerful sub-AGI year | AGI year | Skew of time to AGI date | 20% automation year | 100% automation year | 20% R&D automation year | 100% R&D automation year | Wake-up year | 20-100% economic automation | Skew of 20-100% economic automation | 20-100% R&D automation | Powerful sub-AGI to AGI | 2X to 10X cognitive output multiplier | 5% to 20% GWP growth | Pattern of GWP doublings | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 5.3 | 41% | [2027.30, 2037.20, 2048.50] | [2034.40, 2040.10, 2048.60] | -2.8 | [2028.10, 2036.20, 2047.80] | [2034.30, 2040.00, 2048.60] | [2026.30, 2034.70, 2046.90] | [2034.20, 2039.80, 2048.30] | [2025.20, 2034.40, 2047.30] | [6.10, 3.70, 0.80] | -0.5 | [7.80, 5.00, 1.40] | [7.10, 2.90, 0.10] | [4.20, 2.90, 0.70] | [7.40, 2.90, 0.70] | [[21.99, 5.3, 2.7, 1.1], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 0.9, 0.2]] |
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | 4.1 | 9% | [2052.70, 2037.20, 2029.80] | [2056.40, 2040.10, 2033.30] | 9.5 | [2049.00, 2036.20, 2030.20] | [2056.30, 2040.00, 2033.40] | [2048.30, 2034.70, 2028.50] | [2056.20, 2039.80, 2033.00] | [2047.10, 2034.40, 2028.60] | [7.20, 3.70, 3.10] | 2.9 | [7.80, 5.00, 4.30] | [3.70, 2.90, 3.50] | [5.30, 2.90, 2.10] | [3.70, 2.90, 2.70] | [[21.99, 4.2, 3.3, 1.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.3, 1.1, 1.0]] |
R&D parallelization penalty | 4.0 | 8% | [2037.50, 2037.20, 2037.00] | [2043.80, 2040.10, 2039.30] | 2.9 | [2036.30, 2036.20, 2036.10] | [2043.50, 2040.00, 2039.30] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2042.10, 2039.80, 2039.10] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [7.10, 3.70, 3.10] | 2.8 | [7.30, 5.00, 4.30] | [6.30, 2.90, 2.30] | [3.60, 2.90, 2.70] | [5.50, 2.90, 2.80] | [[21.98, 4.4, 2.7, 1.4], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.5, 1.2]] |
Returns to software | 3.0 | 10% | [2039.40, 2037.20, 2030.30] | [2042.90, 2040.10, 2031.40] | -5.9 | [2038.10, 2036.20, 2029.60] | [2042.80, 2040.00, 2031.30] | [2036.50, 2034.70, 2028.80] | [2042.40, 2039.80, 2031.20] | [2036.20, 2034.40, 2028.50] | [4.60, 3.70, 1.60] | -1.2 | [5.80, 5.00, 2.40] | [3.50, 2.90, 1.10] | [3.40, 2.90, 1.40] | [4.50, 2.90, 1.50] | [[22.3, 4.2, 1.8, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [19.76, 2.2, 0.5]] |
Labour substitution R&D | 2.2 | 5% | [2037.50, 2037.20, 2036.90] | [2041.50, 2040.10, 2039.10] | 0.4 | [2036.30, 2036.20, 2036.10] | [2041.50, 2040.00, 2039.00] | [2034.80, 2034.70, 2034.60] | [2041.20, 2039.80, 2038.80] | [2034.50, 2034.40, 2034.30] | [5.10, 3.70, 2.90] | 0.6 | [6.30, 5.00, 4.10] | [4.00, 2.90, 2.20] | [3.90, 2.90, 2.10] | [4.60, 2.90, 2.70] | [[21.99, 4.2, 2.2, 0.6], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.4, 1.0, 0.7]] |
Training goods vs R&D | 2.1 | 4% | [2037.40, 2037.20, 2036.60] | [2041.00, 2040.10, 2038.40] | -0.8 | [2036.30, 2036.20, 2035.80] | [2041.00, 2040.00, 2038.40] | [2035.40, 2034.70, 2032.30] | [2040.80, 2039.80, 2038.00] | [2034.50, 2034.40, 2034.10] | [4.60, 3.70, 2.50] | -0.3 | [5.30, 5.00, 5.50] | [3.60, 2.90, 1.80] | [3.40, 2.90, 2.20] | [3.30, 2.90, 2.60] | [[21.99, 4.0, 1.8, 0.7], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.2, 0.8, 1.0]] |
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 1.6 | 0% | [2036.50, 2037.20, 2038.40] | [2039.20, 2040.10, 2041.10] | -0.1 | [2034.50, 2036.20, 2038.00] | [2039.20, 2040.00, 2041.10] | [2033.50, 2034.70, 2036.00] | [2039.00, 2039.80, 2040.80] | [2032.50, 2034.40, 2036.40] | [4.60, 3.70, 3.00] | 0.2 | [5.40, 5.00, 4.70] | [2.70, 2.90, 2.70] | [3.50, 2.90, 2.30] | [4.70, 2.90, 2.40] | [[21.99, 4.3, 1.9, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.2, 1.1, 0.5]] |
Maximum trade-off | 1.6 | 2% | [2039.10, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2044.20, 2040.10, 2039.70] | 3.7 | [2039.10, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2044.20, 2040.00, 2039.70] | [2038.50, 2034.70, 2034.40] | [2044.10, 2039.80, 2039.30] | [2037.30, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [5.00, 3.70, 3.40] | 1.0 | [5.50, 5.00, 4.80] | [5.10, 2.90, 2.60] | [3.60, 2.90, 2.50] | [3.50, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.6, 2.3, 0.9], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.7, 1.2, 0.9]] |
Max fraction compute training | 1.1 | 0% | [2038.40, 2037.20, 2037.00] | [2041.10, 2040.10, 2039.60] | 0.5 | [2036.50, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2041.10, 2040.00, 2039.60] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2040.90, 2039.80, 2039.30] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [4.40, 3.70, 3.30] | 0.3 | [6.10, 5.00, 4.50] | [2.70, 2.90, 2.60] | [4.00, 2.90, 2.40] | [4.60, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 4.5, 1.7, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.5, 1.3, 0.6]] |
Returns to hardware | 1.1 | 3% | [2039.60, 2037.20, 2035.70] | [2043.00, 2040.10, 2038.30] | 1.1 | [2038.40, 2036.20, 2034.80] | [2043.00, 2040.00, 2038.30] | [2036.80, 2034.70, 2033.40] | [2042.70, 2039.80, 2038.00] | [2036.40, 2034.40, 2033.10] | [4.50, 3.70, 3.40] | 0.5 | [5.80, 5.00, 4.50] | [3.40, 2.90, 2.60] | [3.40, 2.90, 2.70] | [4.40, 2.90, 2.60] | [[22.01, 4.3, 1.8, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.97, 3.5, 1.3, 0.6]] |
Initial hardware production | 1.0 | 3% | [2040.20, 2037.20, 2036.10] | [2043.10, 2040.10, 2038.00] | 0.9 | [2038.90, 2036.20, 2034.80] | [2043.10, 2040.00, 2038.00] | [2035.80, 2034.70, 2033.80] | [2042.80, 2039.80, 2037.70] | [2035.90, 2034.40, 2033.00] | [4.10, 3.70, 3.10] | -0.2 | [6.80, 5.00, 3.80] | [2.90, 2.90, 1.90] | [4.00, 2.90, 2.20] | [5.30, 2.90, 3.00] | [[21.99, 5.2, 1.6, 0.4], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.4, 1.2, 0.7]] |
Hardware adoption delay | 1.0 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.50, 2040.10, 2039.50] | -0.2 | [2036.10, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.40, 2040.00, 2039.50] | [2034.60, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2040.10, 2039.80, 2039.30] | [2034.30, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [4.20, 3.70, 3.20] | 0.0 | [5.40, 5.00, 4.50] | [3.30, 2.90, 2.40] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.60] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.80] | [[21.99, 3.9, 1.8, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.6, 1.2, 0.8]] |
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 1.0 | 1% | [2039.80, 2037.20, 2034.90] | [2042.80, 2040.10, 2037.30] | -0.1 | [2038.40, 2036.20, 2033.90] | [2042.80, 2040.00, 2037.30] | [2036.60, 2034.70, 2032.70] | [2042.50, 2039.80, 2037.00] | [2036.40, 2034.40, 2032.30] | [4.30, 3.70, 3.30] | 0.2 | [5.80, 5.00, 4.20] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.40] | [3.50, 2.90, 2.30] | [4.20, 2.90, 2.70] | [[22.01, 4.4, 1.6, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.96, 3.2, 1.4, 0.7]] |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 0.9 | 0% | [2037.40, 2037.20, 2036.90] | [2040.60, 2040.10, 2039.50] | -0.1 | [2036.30, 2036.20, 2036.10] | [2040.50, 2040.00, 2039.40] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2040.30, 2039.80, 2039.20] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [4.10, 3.70, 3.20] | -0.1 | [5.50, 5.00, 4.40] | [3.20, 2.90, 2.60] | [3.20, 2.90, 2.50] | [4.30, 2.90, 2.70] | [[21.99, 4.1, 1.6, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.4, 1.3, 0.7]] |
Growth rate fraction compute training | 0.9 | 0% | [2036.90, 2037.20, 2039.00] | [2039.80, 2040.10, 2041.10] | -0.7 | [2035.60, 2036.20, 2037.80] | [2039.80, 2040.00, 2041.10] | [2034.00, 2034.70, 2036.70] | [2039.50, 2039.80, 2040.80] | [2033.80, 2034.40, 2036.10] | [4.10, 3.70, 3.20] | -0.1 | [5.40, 5.00, 4.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.10] | [3.30, 2.90, 2.20] | [4.00, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 4.1, 1.5, 0.6], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.3, 1.3, 0.7]] |
Money threshold training | 0.9 | 1% | [2036.80, 2037.20, 2038.90] | [2039.60, 2040.10, 2041.10] | -0.5 | [2035.40, 2036.20, 2037.80] | [2039.60, 2040.00, 2041.00] | [2033.30, 2034.70, 2036.70] | [2039.30, 2039.80, 2040.70] | [2033.30, 2034.40, 2036.00] | [4.00, 3.70, 3.10] | -0.3 | [5.80, 5.00, 3.90] | [2.80, 2.90, 2.20] | [3.60, 2.90, 2.20] | [4.30, 2.90, 3.00] | [[21.99, 4.4, 1.5, 0.4], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.4, 1.3, 0.9]] |
AGI runtime requirements | 0.8 | 2% | [2040.90, 2037.20, 2036.50] | [2045.30, 2040.10, 2039.10] | 4.2 | [2041.80, 2036.20, 2034.50] | [2045.50, 2040.00, 2039.00] | [2040.00, 2034.70, 2033.60] | [2045.10, 2039.80, 2038.90] | [2040.00, 2034.40, 2032.70] | [3.60, 3.70, 4.40] | -0.6 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.20] | [4.40, 2.90, 2.60] | [2.50, 2.90, 3.30] | [2.90, 2.90, 3.00] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.3, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.9, 1.8, 0.6]] |
Labour substitution goods | 0.6 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.20, 2040.10, 2039.90] | -0.1 | [2036.00, 2036.20, 2036.30] | [2040.20, 2040.00, 2039.90] | [2034.60, 2034.70, 2034.80] | [2039.90, 2039.80, 2039.60] | [2034.20, 2034.40, 2034.50] | [4.10, 3.70, 3.50] | 0.2 | [5.20, 5.00, 4.70] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.80] | [4.50, 2.90, 2.50] | [[22.06, 4.8, 1.0, 0.9], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.97, 3.1, 1.6, 0.7]] |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 0.6 | 0% | [2037.90, 2037.20, 2037.00] | [2040.30, 2040.10, 2040.00] | 0.1 | [2036.70, 2036.20, 2035.60] | [2040.30, 2040.00, 2039.90] | [2034.80, 2034.70, 2034.60] | [2040.00, 2039.80, 2039.70] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.50, 3.70, 4.10] | -0.2 | [5.10, 5.00, 5.10] | [2.40, 2.90, 3.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 3.40] | [3.90, 2.90, 1.70] | [[21.99, 4.1, 1.4, 0.6], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.6, 1.5, 0.5]] |
Wakeup trigger | 0.6 | 1% | [2036.70, 2037.20, 2038.90] | [2039.40, 2040.10, 2041.10] | -0.3 | [2035.40, 2036.20, 2037.60] | [2039.40, 2040.00, 2041.00] | [2033.40, 2034.70, 2035.00] | [2039.20, 2039.80, 2040.80] | [2032.20, 2034.40, 2037.60] | [3.80, 3.70, 3.20] | -0.4 | [5.70, 5.00, 5.60] | [2.70, 2.90, 2.20] | [3.60, 2.90, 2.60] | [4.00, 2.90, 4.70] | [[21.99, 5.1, 1.7, 0.4], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 2.2, 1.0]] |
Initial cognitive share goods | 0.5 | 2% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.30, 2040.10, 2039.90] | 0.0 | [2036.10, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.20, 2040.00, 2039.80] | [2034.60, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2040.00, 2039.80, 2039.60] | [2034.30, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [4.00, 3.70, 3.50] | 0.1 | [5.30, 5.00, 4.80] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.80] | [4.90, 2.90, 2.50] | [[20.36, 5.0], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [23.39, 3.2, 1.4, 0.6]] |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 0.4 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.20, 2040.10, 2039.90] | -0.1 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.20, 2040.00, 2039.80] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.90, 2039.80, 2039.60] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.90, 3.70, 3.50] | 0.0 | [5.10, 5.00, 4.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.6, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.6, 1.4, 0.5]] |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 0.4 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.30, 2040.10, 2040.00] | 0.1 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.30, 2040.00, 2039.90] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.90, 2039.80, 2039.70] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [4.00, 3.70, 3.60] | 0.2 | [5.10, 5.00, 4.90] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.6], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.4, 0.4]] |
Trade-off efficiency | 0.4 | 1% | [2037.70, 2037.20, 2036.90] | [2041.10, 2040.10, 2039.60] | 0.5 | [2037.10, 2036.20, 2035.30] | [2041.00, 2040.00, 2039.60] | [2035.90, 2034.70, 2034.10] | [2040.80, 2039.80, 2039.30] | [2035.40, 2034.40, 2033.40] | [3.80, 3.70, 4.20] | -0.4 | [4.80, 5.00, 5.10] | [3.40, 2.90, 2.70] | [2.80, 2.90, 3.20] | [3.00, 2.90, 3.80] | [[21.99, 3.6, 1.6, 0.4], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 4.2, 1.5, 0.5]] |
Maximum software performance | 0.4 | 0% | [2037.30, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.40, 2040.10, 2039.90] | 0.1 | [2036.30, 2036.20, 2036.10] | [2040.40, 2040.00, 2039.80] | [2034.80, 2034.70, 2034.60] | [2040.10, 2039.80, 2039.60] | [2034.50, 2034.40, 2034.30] | [4.00, 3.70, 3.60] | 0.2 | [5.20, 5.00, 4.90] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.80] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.80] | [[21.99, 3.9, 1.5, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.7, 1.5, 0.6]] |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | 0.3 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.40, 2040.10, 2040.00] | 0.2 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.30, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2040.00, 2039.80, 2039.70] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [4.00, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.3 | [5.20, 5.00, 4.90] | [3.20, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.90] | [149.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 5.9, 12.1, 10.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.7, 1.3, 0.4]] |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 0.2 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.20, 2040.10, 2039.90] | -0.1 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.10, 2040.00, 2039.90] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.60] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.80, 3.70, 3.60] | 0.0 | [5.00, 5.00, 4.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.70] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.7, 1.4, 0.5]] |
Maximum hardware performance | 0.2 | 1% | [2037.30, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.40, 2040.10, 2039.90] | 0.1 | [2036.30, 2036.20, 2036.10] | [2040.30, 2040.00, 2039.90] | [2034.80, 2034.70, 2034.60] | [2040.00, 2039.80, 2039.60] | [2034.50, 2034.40, 2034.30] | [3.90, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.2 | [5.10, 5.00, 4.90] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.80] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.6, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.7, 1.5, 0.5]] |
Runtime goods vs R&D | 0.2 | 1% | [2037.30, 2037.20, 2037.10] | [2040.30, 2040.10, 2039.90] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.10] | [2040.20, 2040.00, 2039.90] | [2034.80, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.90, 2039.80, 2039.60] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.30] | [3.90, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.2 | [5.00, 5.00, 4.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.80] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.80] | [[21.99, 3.9, 1.5, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.4, 0.4]] |
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.2 | 1% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.00] | -0.1 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.10, 2040.00, 2039.90] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.70] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.80, 3.70, 3.60] | 0.0 | [5.00, 5.00, 4.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.80] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.80] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.6], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.7, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 0.1 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.10, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.90, 2039.80, 2039.70] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.80, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.1 | [5.10, 5.00, 4.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 3.00] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.7], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.4, 0.4]] |
Max fraction compute software R&D | 0.1 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.10, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.80] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.80, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.1 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | 0.1 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.10, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.80] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.80, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.1 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [3.10, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.6], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.4, 0.5]] |
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 0.0 | 1% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.00, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.80] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.70, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.0 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.00, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.80] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.70, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.0 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.4, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Max fraction labour software R&D | 0.0 | 1% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.00, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.80] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.70, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.0 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Max fraction GWP compute | 0.0 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.00, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.80] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.70, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.0 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Compute depreciation rate | 0.0 | 0% | [2036.90, 2037.20, 2037.40] | [2039.90, 2040.10, 2040.30] | 0.0 | [2036.00, 2036.20, 2036.40] | [2039.80, 2040.00, 2040.20] | [2034.60, 2034.70, 2034.90] | [2039.60, 2039.80, 2040.00] | [2034.20, 2034.40, 2034.60] | [3.70, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.0 | [4.90, 5.00, 5.00] | [3.00, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 3.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.62, 3.7, 1.5, 0.5], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [22.43, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 0.0 | 0% | [2037.20, 2037.20, 2037.20] | [2040.10, 2040.10, 2040.10] | 0.0 | [2036.20, 2036.20, 2036.20] | [2040.00, 2040.00, 2040.00] | [2034.70, 2034.70, 2034.70] | [2039.80, 2039.80, 2039.80] | [2034.40, 2034.40, 2034.40] | [3.70, 3.70, 3.70] | 0.0 | [5.00, 5.00, 5.00] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [2.90, 2.90, 2.90] | [[21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8], [21.99, 3.8, 1.5, 0.8]] |
Totals | Sum of agi_year skews: | 12.40 | Sum of full_automation_gns skews: | 5.90 |
Inputs
Show
Conservative | Best guess | Aggressive | |
---|---|---|---|
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | 1.000000e+40 | 1.000000e+36 | 1.000000e+33 |
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 1.000000e+08 | 1.000000e+04 | 1.000000e+01 |
Training goods vs R&D | 1.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+01 |
AGI runtime requirements | 1.000000e+20 | 1.666670e+16 | 1.000000e+15 |
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 1.000000e+02 | 1.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+00 |
Runtime goods vs R&D | 3.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+02 | 3.000000e+02 |
Trade-off efficiency | 3.000000e+00 | 1.500000e+00 | 8.000000e-01 |
Maximum trade-off | 1.000000e+00 | 3.000000e+01 | 1.000000e+03 |
Labour substitution goods | -2.000000e+00 | -5.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 |
Labour substitution R&D | -2.000000e+00 | -5.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | -2.000000e+00 | -4.000000e-01 | -2.000000e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | -5.000000e-01 | -2.500000e-01 | -1.700000e-01 |
Research experiments substitution software | -1.000000e-02 | ||
Efficiency of experiments for software R&D | 4.000000e-01 | ||
Returns to hardware | 3.000000e+00 | 5.200000e+00 | 7.000000e+00 |
Returns to software | 8.000000e-01 | 1.250000e+00 | 5.000000e+00 |
Maximum hardware performance | 1.000000e+23 | 1.000000e+26 | 1.000000e+29 |
Maximum software performance | 1.000000e+08 | 1.000000e+12 | 1.000000e+16 |
R&D parallelization penalty | 2.000000e-01 | 7.000000e-01 | 9.900000e-01 |
Hardware adoption delay | 2.500000e+00 | 1.000000e+00 | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | ||
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | ||
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | ||
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | ||
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 1.800000e-01 | ||
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 7.000000e-02 | 1.900000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction compute training | 9.312925e-01 | 5.475284e-01 | 1.637642e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 1.400000e-01 | 3.200000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 1.400000e-01 | 3.200000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.700000e-01 | 6.700000e-01 | 1.370000e+00 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.200000e-01 | 2.200000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 2.700000e-01 | 6.700000e-01 | 1.370000e+00 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 7.000000e-02 | 1.900000e-01 | 3.700000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 5.500000e-01 | 1.100000e+00 | 4.500000e+00 |
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 |
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 |
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.500000e-01 |
Max fraction labour software R&D | 1.000000e-02 | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 |
Max fraction compute software R&D | 5.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.500000e-01 |
Max fraction GWP compute | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 |
Max fraction compute training | 3.000000e-02 | 1.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 |
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | ||
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | ||
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 | ||
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | ||
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 2.000000e-04 | ||
Initial biggest training run | 3.000000e+24 | ||
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 4.700000e-02 | ||
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 2.000000e-01 | ||
Initial hardware production | 1.000000e+27 | 1.000000e+28 | 1.000000e+29 |
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 2.000000e+00 | ||
Initial market hardware performance | 1.500000e+17 | ||
Initial GWP | 8.500000e+13 | ||
Initial world labour force. | 4.000000e+09 | ||
Initial cognitive share goods | 3.000000e-01 | 5.000000e-01 | 6.500000e-01 |
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 7.000000e-01 | ||
Initial compute share goods | 1.000000e-02 | ||
Initial compute share R&D | 1.000000e-02 | ||
Initial experiment share software R&D | 3.000000e-01 | ||
Wakeup trigger | 1.000000e-02 | 6.000000e-02 | 2.000000e-01 |
Initial capital growth rate | 2.750000e-02 | ||
Population growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | ||
TFP growth rate | 1.000000e-02 | ||
Compute depreciation rate | 1.000000e-01 | 2.000000e-01 | 3.000000e-01 |
Money threshold training | 2.000000e+10 | 4.000000e+09 | 4.000000e+08 |
Training requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 | ||
Runtime requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 |
Here, you will find a comparative analysis of the model results conditional on beliefs that correspond to short, medium or long timelines until AGI.
Metrics
Show
FLOP to train AGI using 2022 algorithms | Scenario | Training FLOP gap | Powerful sub-AGI year | AGI year | 20% automation year | 100% automation year | 20% R&D automation year | 100% R&D automation year | Wake-up year | 20-100% economic automation | 20-100% R&D automation | Powerful sub-AGI to AGI | 2X to 10X cognitive output multiplier | 5% to 20% GWP growth | Pattern of GWP doublings |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1e30 | Conservative | 1.0e+04 | 2024.4 | 2039.0 | 2032.2 | 2049.5 | 2023.6 | 2040.8 | 2026.5 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 13.2 | [21.4, 10.3, 4.8, 3.0, 2.6] |
1e30 | Best guess | 1.0e+02 | 2028.3 | 2030.2 | 2029.1 | 2032.1 | 2027.7 | 2031.0 | 2027.4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3.0 | [21.99, 3.4, 0.7, 1.4] |
1e30 | Aggressive | 1.0e+01 | 2028.4 | 2028.5 | 2028.4 | 2028.6 | 2028.1 | 2028.5 | 2028.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | [19.75, 0.3] |
1e36 | Conservative | 1.0e+07 | 2033.9 | 2065.5 | 2038.2 | 2065.5 | 2031.6 | 2064.5 | 2032.0 | 27.0 | 32.3 | 31.6 | 17.7 | 24.9 | [22.32, 11.2, 7.6, 5.4, 4.1] |
1e36 | Best guess | 1.0e+04 | 2039.1 | 2044.2 | 2039.1 | 2044.2 | 2038.5 | 2044.2 | 2037.3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | [21.99, 3.9, 2.2, 0.8] |
1e36 | Aggressive | 1.0e+02 | 2036.6 | 2037.0 | 2036.6 | 2037.0 | 2036.4 | 2037.0 | 2036.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | [19.75, 0.5, 0.2] |
1e42 | Conservative | 1.0e+10 | 2048.0 | 2108.1 | 2058.2 | 2108.1 | 2046.1 | 2107.0 | 2050.4 | 49.5 | 60.3 | 60.1 | 30.2 | 42.9 | [22.32, 12.6, 8.4, 7.5, 7.2] |
1e42 | Best guess | 1.0e+06 | 2055.7 | 2072.1 | 2055.7 | 2072.1 | 2053.2 | 2072.0 | 2050.7 | 15.7 | 18.1 | 16.4 | 11.1 | 20.4 | [21.99, 9.2, 6.1, 3.4, 2.0] |
1e42 | Aggressive | 1.0e+03 | 2052.6 | 2053.5 | 2052.6 | 2053.5 | 2052.4 | 2053.4 | 2052.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.8 | [19.75, 1.0, 0.4] |
Compute increase over time
Model summary
Scenario
Compare to
FLOP to train AGI using 2022 algorithms | Scenario | Training FLOP gap | Period | Year | Biggest training run | Fraction of goods and services tasks automated | Fraction of R&D tasks automated | Hardware performance growth rate | Hardware performance doubling time | Software growth rate | Software doubling time | Investment on compute growth rate | Investment on compute doubling time | Fraction of compute invested in training growth rate | Fraction of compute invested in training doubling time | GWP growth rate | GWP doubling time | Capital growth rate | Capital doubling time | Labour growth rate | Labour doubling time | R&D TFP growth rate | R&D TFP doubling time | Software R&D input growth rate | Software R&D input doubling time | Cumulative software R&D input growth rate | Cumulative software R&D input doubling time |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1e36 | Best guess | 1.0e+4 | Pre wake-up | 2029.7 | 2.543392e+28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.210664 | 3.290294 | 0.226377 | 3.061910 | 0.219053 | 3.164294 | 0.000000 | - | 0.029041 | 23.868027 | 0.028281 | 24.509086 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.192949 | 3.592393 | 0.136254 | 5.087163 |
1e36 | Best guess | 1.0e+4 | Wake-up | 2037.3 | 3.787892e+30 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.233226 | 2.971999 | 0.248271 | 2.791898 | 0.322727 | 2.147783 | 0.990000 | 0.700149 | 0.119094 | 5.820153 | 0.031994 | 21.664720 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.417645 | 1.659656 | 0.160170 | 4.327567 |
1e36 | Best guess | 1.0e+4 | Mid rampup | 2039.1 | 9.574689e+31 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.383478 | 1.807530 | 0.349197 | 1.984977 | 0.414457 | 1.672423 | 0.635333 | 1.090998 | 0.226857 | 3.055435 | 0.041641 | 16.645684 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.617718 | 1.122109 | 0.230293 | 3.009852 |
1e36 | Best guess | 1.0e+4 | Full economic automation | 2044.2 | 1.602871e+36 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.104972 | 0.135779 | 7.178115 | 0.096564 | 0.667874 | 1.037842 | 0.000000 | - | 0.274036 | 2.529403 | 0.192053 | 3.609155 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 6.620102 | 0.104703 | 7.098214 | 0.097651 |
Assumptions
Scenario
Compare to
Show
Med timelines - Best guess | |
---|---|
AGI training requirements (FLOP with 2022 algorithms) | 1.000000e+36 |
Effective FLOP gap (training) | 1.000000e+04 |
Training goods vs R&D | 3.000000e+00 |
AGI runtime requirements | 1.666670e+16 |
Effective FLOP gap (runtime) | 1.000000e+01 |
Runtime goods vs R&D | 1.000000e+02 |
Trade-off efficiency | (disabled) |
Maximum trade-off | (disabled) |
Labour substitution goods | -5.000000e-01 |
Labour substitution R&D | -5.000000e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for goods and services | -4.000000e-01 |
Substitution between capital and cognitive tasks for hardware R&D | -2.500000e-01 |
Research experiments substitution software | -1.000000e-02 |
Efficiency of experiments for software R&D | 4.000000e-01 |
Returns to hardware | 5.200000e+00 |
Returns to software | 1.250000e+00 |
Maximum hardware performance | 1.000000e+26 |
Maximum software performance | 1.000000e+12 |
R&D parallelization penalty | 7.000000e-01 |
Hardware adoption delay | 1.000000e+00 |
Growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 1.000000e-02 |
Growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 1.800000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction compute software R&D | 1.800000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction GWP compute | 1.900000e-01 |
Growth rate fraction compute training | 5.475284e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction capital hardware R&D | 1.400000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour hardware R&D | 1.400000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute hardware R&D | 6.700000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction labour software R&D | 2.200000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of compute software R&D | 6.700000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction of GWP buying compute | 1.900000e-01 |
Wake-up growth rate fraction compute training AI models | 1.100000e+00 |
Max fraction capital hardware R&D | 3.000000e-02 |
Max fraction of labour dedicated to hardware R&D | 3.000000e-02 |
Max fraction of compute dedicated to hardware R&D | 2.000000e-01 |
Max fraction labour software R&D | 3.000000e-02 |
Max fraction compute software R&D | 2.000000e-01 |
Max fraction GWP compute | 1.000000e-01 |
Max fraction compute training | 1.000000e-01 |
Initial fraction capital hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction labour hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction compute hardware R&D | 2.000000e-03 |
Initial fraction labour software R&D | 2.000000e-04 |
Initial fraction compute software R&D | 2.000000e-04 |
Initial biggest training run | 3.000000e+24 |
Initial vs cumulative input - hardware R&D | 4.700000e-02 |
Initial vs cumulative input - software R&D | 2.000000e-01 |
Initial hardware production | 1.000000e+28 |
Accumulated hardware vs initial hardware production | 2.000000e+00 |
Initial market hardware performance | 1.500000e+17 |
Initial GWP | 8.500000e+13 |
Initial world labour force. | 4.000000e+09 |
Initial cognitive share goods | 5.000000e-01 |
Initial cognitive share in hardware R&D | 7.000000e-01 |
Initial compute share goods | 1.000000e-02 |
Initial compute share R&D | 1.000000e-02 |
Initial experiment share software R&D | 3.000000e-01 |
Wakeup trigger | 6.000000e-02 |
Initial capital growth rate | 2.750000e-02 |
Population growth rate | 1.000000e-02 |
TFP growth rate | 1.000000e-02 |
Compute depreciation rate | 2.000000e-01 |
Money threshold training | 4.000000e+09 |
Training requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 |
Runtime requirements steepness (OOM) | 0.000000e+00 |