Compute decomposition
$ on FLOP globally
Hardware (FLOP/$)
Software (2022-FLOP per FLOP)
Fraction global FLOP on training
Wake-up
20% automation (goods and services)
100% automation (goods and services)
Takeoff metrics
Show
100% automation year | 20-100% economic automation | 20-100% R&D automation |
---|---|---|
2040.0 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
Summary
Click here for the detailed year by year table.
Period | Year | Biggest training run | Fraction of goods and services tasks automated | Fraction of R&D tasks automated | Hardware performance growth rate | Hardware performance doubling time | Software growth rate | Software doubling time | Investment on compute growth rate | Investment on compute doubling time | Fraction of compute invested in training growth rate | Fraction of compute invested in training doubling time | GWP growth rate | GWP doubling time | Capital growth rate | Capital doubling time | Labour growth rate | Labour doubling time | R&D TFP growth rate | R&D TFP doubling time | Software R&D input growth rate | Software R&D input doubling time | Cumulative software R&D input growth rate | Cumulative software R&D input doubling time |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pre wake-up | 2028.1 | 4.529065e+27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.217041 | 3.193618 | 0.232245 | 2.984546 | 0.219279 | 3.161025 | 0.547500 | 1.266022 | 0.029262 | 23.687302 | 0.028241 | 24.543905 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.208357 | 3.326733 | 0.137870 | 5.027546 |
Wake-up | 2034.3 | 6.072323e+29 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.267150 | 2.594601 | 0.277355 | 2.499134 | 0.296731 | 2.335941 | 0.990000 | 0.700149 | 0.114271 | 6.065808 | 0.030745 | 22.545188 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.516736 | 1.341396 | 0.174810 | 3.965147 |
Mid rampup | 2036.1 | 1.675000e+31 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.489366 | 1.416418 | 0.427487 | 1.621446 | 0.402150 | 1.723603 | 0.635540 | 1.090643 | 0.213944 | 3.239847 | 0.039073 | 17.739981 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.769412 | 0.900879 | 0.276343 | 2.508289 |
Full economic automation | 2040.0 | 2.986499e+36 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 4.246986 | 0.163209 | 9.783630 | 0.070848 | 0.436375 | 1.588422 | 0.000000 | NaN | 0.201246 | 3.444283 | 0.187184 | 3.703025 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 0.010000 | 69.314718 | 14.040534 | 0.049368 | 12.894726 | 0.053754 |
Metrics
GWP
Wake-up
20% automation (goods and services)
100% automation (goods and services)