Compute decomposition


2022202420262028203020322034203620382040204220441e-21e+01e+21e+41e+61e+81e+101e+121e+141e+161e+181e+201e+221e+24
$ on FLOP globally
Hardware (FLOP/$)
Software (2022-FLOP per FLOP)
Fraction global FLOP on training
Wake-up
20% automation (goods and services)
100% automation (goods and services)

Takeoff metrics

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100% automation year20-100% economic automation20-100% R&D automation
2040.03.84.9

Summary

Click here for the detailed year by year table.

PeriodYearBiggest training runFraction of goods and services tasks automatedFraction of R&D tasks automatedHardware performance growth rateHardware performance doubling timeSoftware growth rateSoftware doubling timeInvestment on compute growth rateInvestment on compute doubling timeFraction of compute invested in training growth rateFraction of compute invested in training doubling timeGWP growth rateGWP doubling timeCapital growth rateCapital doubling timeLabour growth rateLabour doubling timeR&D TFP growth rateR&D TFP doubling timeSoftware R&D input growth rateSoftware R&D input doubling timeCumulative software R&D input growth rateCumulative software R&D input doubling time
Pre wake-up2028.14.529065e+270.000.000.2170413.1936180.2322452.9845460.2192793.1610250.5475001.2660220.02926223.6873020.02824124.5439050.01000069.3147180.01000069.3147180.2083573.3267330.1378705.027546
Wake-up2034.36.072323e+290.060.170.2671502.5946010.2773552.4991340.2967312.3359410.9900000.7001490.1142716.0658080.03074522.5451880.01000069.3147180.01000069.3147180.5167361.3413960.1748103.965147
Mid rampup2036.11.675000e+310.200.410.4893661.4164180.4274871.6214460.4021501.7236030.6355401.0906430.2139443.2398470.03907317.7399810.01000069.3147180.01000069.3147180.7694120.9008790.2763432.508289
Full economic automation2040.02.986499e+361.001.004.2469860.1632099.7836300.0708480.4363751.5884220.000000NaN0.2012463.4442830.1871843.7030250.01000069.3147180.01000069.31471814.0405340.04936812.8947260.053754

Metrics

2022202420262028203020322034203620382040204220441e+142e+143e+144e+145e+146e+147e+148e+141e+152e+15
GWP
Wake-up
20% automation (goods and services)
100% automation (goods and services)